1)
We need to understand the new direction of the West in confronting their international problems in the wake of the
failures in Afghanistan and Iraq followed by the debacles in Libya and Syria. We, on our part have to face
a different future not keep living in the past when our cards were
more powerful in influencing the policies
of the West in the Middle East. Then our
interests were almost identical with those of the Americans and we sang from the same hymn sheet. Times
have changed and we need to adapt to the new situation.
2)
Nothing can illustrate our lack of understanding better than the behaviour of
our government in the United Nations. We
are undermining our friends and losing
their trust rather than bolstering their stand in the renewed cold war irrupting
in Europe and the Pacific. To leave the UN Assembly
when Rouhani delivered his address, was a mistake of the first degree. Yaeer Lapid's public chiding of Netanyahu was mild. Dany Danon, another Minister, declaring that he would ensure the failure of our negotiations
with the Palestinians was appalling. Our Government looks like it lacks cohesion and clear direction which is harming
our future standing in the region and confusing our supporters. We should stop
self congratulatory rhetoric which is becoming too much of a recurrent theme.
3)
We insulted the Iranian people instead of exploiting Rouhani’s new approach
slanting it to serve our purpose. We denied him the chance to address us publically.
Respect, Dignity and Face are very important in the East. Fight an oriental if it
suits you but don’t insult him showing him disrespect. Diplomacy is a make-belief art
and a game. We can play it to exploit the cracks appearing in our enemies' change of
tone and try to widen it. We should have shown respect towards Rouhani.
Sitting to listen carefully and respectfully to him could have given us a better platform
to appeal and address the Iranian People over his head. Instead we appeared to spoil
the delicate game that Obama believed he was playing as much on our behalf as on the
Americans'.
4)
Rouhani was more crafty than Netanyahu. He appealed to the Jewish people over
the head of Israel's
Government. He was exploiting the very approach that should have been taken by Israel. The Yom Kippur War was
primarily a political failure anchored in a mistaken military assessment of our enemies. Our
military might is again breeding
arrogance and blinding our people. We
need to grasp that things are changing in the West whose governments are under
great pressure from their anti Israel public and that unfortunately includes
even Germany recently despite the
unwavering support by Angela Merkel. Netanyahu should have learned the lesson
when President Hollande complained at the time that his joint visit to Toulouse'
Synagogue was exploited by Netanyahu for
the latter's home election campaign. And let us not forget the off the recorded
whisper between Obama and Sarcosi voicing their exasperation at Netanyahu's
tactics.
6) President Obama might not be the weak president that some commentators in our media in Israel
portray him to be. It is only that he realises that America
is economically too weak to afford itself wars abroad following Afghanistan and Iraq. But he is still the elected President
of the most powerful country in the world today. Netanyahu has to understand
that. The thrust of Obama's stated address to the United
Nations is two prong. Settling the Israeli/Palestinian issue and resolving the
Iranian nuclear impasse. These are the two places where world leaders'
attention were directed to join him in finding solutions. As for the Syrian
crisis Obama realised that he has to
treat it as a side issue rather than tackle it head on and clash with the Russians.
7) After the debacles in Libya
and Egypt Obama began to understand the mosaic of the Middle East. Turkey
and Iran
have been going through social transformations for the last century. As a
result their populations are divided between on the one hand the modernity of Atatuk
in Turkey and Pahlavi in Iran and on the
other hand the rising Islamist reactions of Erdogan and Khamenaei. Recently
these reactions were accentuated by a new open confrontation between Shiaa and Sunni Islam. The undercurrent rivalry
of five centuries between the Ottoman
Sunni Empire with the Shiaa Persian Empire has revived and is now bubbling. But both
countries today have comparatively stable regimes and they realise that they
have to find mutual accommodation of coexistence vis-à-vis the West. They are
non-Arab Muslim countries in our region and we cannot afford to lose both of
them. Our conflict with our Arab neighbours is less significant to them against
their internal problems and is expressed by them in lip service verbal echoing
of the Arab stereotype pronouncements. Lately
the Americans are trying to find a balance between them But on our part we must
take every opportunity to address the moderates amongst them directly rather than concentrate on attacking
their governments.
8) No doubt that Israel
needs to be and be seen to be strong. However what is needed is not just a strong well prepared army. Strength is
relative. Israel's
strength needs to be its ability to protect its borders from outside dangers
and to create peaceful co existence of its fractured society inside. Realities cannot be faced with
semantics. A slogan of a Jewish Democratic State cannot ring true in an Israel
with a substantial Arab presence today
that would swell into a future majority were we to keep the West Bank within
Israel's Borders. Solutions not wishful thinking are called for. On my part, I
tried on the pages of my book “Israel: State
or Ghetto” (and in my Hebrew book:
Hametsiut Machtiva) to encapsulate my analysis of the 3 Major Problems that
have been facing us crying for resolution and offered realistic solutions. 1) A
clear defendable borders, 2) A practical electoral system to ensure the cohesion
of our citizenry and 3) A rehabilitation of our tattered image abroad.
9) And just before the
second Lebanon war of 2006 in my address to the Oxford Union (Chapter 6 ) I analysed factually the struggle of Shia and
Sunna for power in the region to the extent that won me the final vote at that night’s debate,
but more importantly it won me the
admiration of Professor Ali Ansari a close associate of the Rafsanjani faction
in Iran. He went out of his way to tell my wife and later confirmed by email to
me that as he put it, he bowed to the quality of my analysis and the wisdom of
my approach. It is worthwhile to read this address which demonstrates a model of
how to present our case and even our thorny case for keeping our nuclear option
and win without insulting our enemies and
all that while not conceding an inch.
10) Soon after the second Lebanon war I analysed in the same book (ch 7 Debacle
in Lebanon)
the precariousness of our relationships
in the region and beyond, while discerning
the signs of a coming renewed Cold War.
Here we are sandwiched between Arab hostile states neglecting our relationship
with the two non-Arab real powers in the region, the Sunni Turkey and the Shia
Iran. We are a small Jewish enclave in a sea of Arabs.
We need the two non-Arab countries to set them up as our allied dams against
the turbulent Arab sea. The history of the last 500 years would help us to
understand better the background of the Arab relationship with their non Arab
Muslins in the region.
11) The swell of anti Israel sentiments in the streets of Europe fed by a powerfully orchestrated Palestinian public relation
machine is quickly changing into anti Jewish and Anti Semitic. It will soon spill over to the wider public of the United States.
I say wider in order not to compress the
US public as we often do into New York
and Washington.
It is this fear that should inform our
first and most important policy to settle our borders with the Palestinians with
the dual objective of securing the future survival of Israel and changing its image in the world. Once our borders are
agreed and settled Israel then will become as it was meant to be, the de facto last
refuge of the Jewish people rather than a Masada like militarized camp where voluntarily the
entire Jewish population of the world kraal
themselves together into a tiny strip of land surrounded by 400 million Arabs
raring to repossess it. Geography and Demography
should guide our politics and wisdom should guide our negotiations with the
Palestinians. At the heart of our stance during the negotiations should be that in a final settlement Jews can live in Palestine
in the way that Arabs now constitute 20 per cent of Israel living as equal citizens
within its borders.
12) And as if we have not enough what with our internal divisions and external dangers a new
problem as worrying is now beginning to
surface. A fault line is developing between
the messianic convictions of the militant ultra nationalistic ideologies in Israel
and the progressive pragmatic views of a
growing segments of the Diaspora. This is a gratuitous future threat to our very existence as a united Jewish
People. Letting this gap between Israel and the
Diaspora widen will weaken and may lead to destroying a unity which we have
maintained for a century. Herzl's Altneuland needs to meet midway the Golden
Medinah.
Aharon Nathan, 15 Oct 2013
