2.
And what about the other bone of contention between Netanyahu and Kerry? Kerry wants to concentrate on the West Bank.
Netanyahu ask what about Gaza
and Hamas. In this I believe Kerry is right. Once Abu Mazen is established as
the President of the State of Palestine he will deal with Gaza and Hamas. And the quicker that happens
the bigger chance Abu Mazen will have to assert his authority especially now
that Egypt is weakening Hamas. It would
be wise for Israel
to leave that issue to the Palestinians themselves to solve their internal
differences. For unless Abu Mazen is established soon as the President of a viable Palestine
on the West Bank the future leadership of the
Palestinians will by default revert back to Hamas. We would then have resurrected
them at a time when their popularity and influence are at an all time low. It
will be us who will perpetuate the conflict with all the Palestinians and
consequently with all the Arab world.
3.
Israel's other problem is internal.
It is causing much harm to our democracy and politics. I refer to the way our
three arms of the state are interacting. The Rule of the Law of the Knesset,
the first arm of the State, the Sovereign, is now replaced by the Rule of the
Law of the Supreme Court. Today it is the Judges of Jerusalem who decide which law is good and binding and which
is not thus legislating from the Bench. Contrary to the general perception in Israel this is not the case in the West
certainly not in England.
And for good measure the delays of investigations of the Police, the Prosecutor
General and the overburdened Courts together are impacting indirectly on
the political arena where key players
are removed for years awaiting trials and verdicts. Justice today in Israel is Justice Denied because it
is Justice Delayed. Examples of public figures shabbily treated are too many to enumerate.
4.
After some 15 years when his reputation was shredded Lieberman was acquitted. Can
we hope that soon this will be followed by the final decision on Ehud Olmert? Is there time left for him to join in leading
us out of the morass that the settlers of the West Bank
have plunged us into. Here we have the best Prime Minister neutralised, who could
have taken part in the fateful decisions that have to be made now on the future
existence of Israel.
And if he continues to be denied his
central role will Netanyahu instead wake
up at last to catch the opportunity to do that himself?
5.
Olmert in publicised interviews in America and Israel explained frankly and openly
the details of the peace plan that he hammered
out during his premiership with Abu Mazen. Olmert believes that it could have
been implemented then, and can still be now, if only the counterpart leader in Israel has the
courage to do that. Olmert has this courage but he is waiting on the sidelines
for the conclusion of his trial. And we the people of Israel must
look to the incumbent Premier Netanyahu to have that courage.
6.
Would Netanyahu together with Tsipi Livni have the clout to catch this historic
opportunity the way that Rabin-Peres did at Oslo?
I think that they might. As promised by Netanyahu that if a settlement
is reached he will submit the plan to a Referendum. Will there be enough votes
to succeed. I maintain yes - easily. With 20% Arabs in Israel who no doubt will wholeheartedly and overwhelmingly vote
for a settlement it will not be too difficult to recruit enough Jewish votes to
bring the majority to 50% plus one with or without the support of the one million
Israeli New Diaspora abroad.
7.
But Netanyahu is leading a fractured coalition that lacks cohesion and resolve.
He is hesitant and gets bouts of cold feet now and then which he treats with rhetoric.
He understands the situation very well and knows ahead of public opinion that
America with its prospect of self sufficiency in oil is not the same America
that depended entirely on Saudi Arabians oil and therefore on us as the standby
whipping boy. The Gulf States
identification with the West today stems less from oil and more from their enormous
financial interests. To them a pacified and contained Iran is better than Iran at loggerheads with the West. Most
of them conveniently prefer Saudi
Arabia to bear the brunt of the Shiaa/Sunna
conflict. Saudia resents this new order but that should be no comfort to us
8,
Here comes the long distance runner who takes the long view and plans his move
long in advance: Avigdor Lieberman. Netanyahu is shrewd enough to see that he
is snookered by long suffering Obama. By assigning the mediation to Kerry both
Obama and Kerry are not going easily to give up the prize of bringing the Israel/Palestinian
negotiation to a successful conclusion. However unlike Netanyahu whose
constituency is messianic and religious and his support tenuous, Lieberman's
constituency is pragmatic and secular and his support is solid. He lives in the
West Bank but is not dependant on its votes
which he will always seek in Russian Natanya.
9.
Therefore my belief is that having tried their utmost to negotiate the best
deal via Tsipi Livni and directly with Kerry
Netanyahu backed by Lieberman will sign up with Abu Mazen, and that will
be sooner than many expect. They both know that in the Knesset and in a
referendum in the country their backing is assured.
Aharon Nathan, 3rd January 2014
Aharon Nathan, 3rd January 2014