Showing posts with label Israel Arab Conflict. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Israel Arab Conflict. Show all posts

Friday, 8 July 2016

Will Israel Survive the Next Generation? (Israel Arab Conflict)

Synopsis for Discussion - Aharon Nathan 8 July 2016

Background
1.      Israel is unique. Its achievements in seventy years are un-paralleled in history; each and every one is hardly short of a miracle. Having said that I can’t see Israel surviving the next generation owing to dangers from outside and more so from inside.  Why?
2.      Because our victory in 1948 led to arrogance which was augmented in 1967 leaving us to believe that we are invincible. After Ben Gurion, Israel lacked a clear policy of survival.  She has been guided wrongly by  successive leaders who resorted to Tactical responses to events instead of pursuing a clear headed Strategy based on the realities surrounding the country from outside and transforming it inside.
3.      Subsequent to 1967 all seemingly military victories were equivocal which led us to ignore the Geography and Demography of our situation vis-à-vis our enemies.  In the long term these twin dangers will slowly but surely come to be our undoing unless we take immediate steps now. Unfortunately however our political system is in the way, preventing us to think of these steps let alone implementing them. Today we need a single minded Ben Gurion.

Responses and Solutions
Following are my solutions based on the dictates of Geography and Demography and not on ideology and wishful thinking:
1.      Change the electoral system in Israel to TR, Total Representation which is essentially a fusion of the constituency FPTP Westminster System and Israel’s present Proportional Representation. My books and articles and those of my supporters in English and Hebrew are there to give the answers to all questions that might be raised. The purpose of TR is to make the Knesset truly representative while creating a stable government that can take necessary but unpopular decisions to face the challenges inside and outside Israel. Moreover it stops the Judicial Arm from legislating from the Bench.  
2.      Negotiate a quick separation from the West Bank with the Palestinian Authority along the lines of the plan of MK Hilik Bar as approved by the Labour Party (Avoda). Failing an agreement with Palestinian leaders, Israel should implement it unilaterally. I have been advocating just that since 2001.
3.      Ensure the separation of Gaza from the West Bank through a demilitarised independent Republic State of Gaza or any other form of a political entity physically and legally separated from Palestine on the West Bank. Otherwise Israel will be in danger of being cut in half through future simultaneous pincer attack from Gaza and Hebron.

All the above is explained fully in my English Book  “Israel : State or Ghetto” from Amazon and Kindle and Kindle and in my Hebrew Book : “ Hametsiut Machtiva” Realities Dictate published by CECI Tel Aviv. For details of  TR see Dr Ken Ritchie's “Fixing our BrokenDemocracy: The Case for Total Representation" from Amazon £7.50 for print edition and just £1 in Kindle.

Friday, 16 January 2015

Israel's Pyramid Democracy and the Forthcoming Elections


1. Netanyahu with typical arrogance declared after the last meeting with President Obama that he is the Prime Minster of the Jewish People! How? Who elected him? Who empowered him? The way Primaries work in Israel create Pyramid Structures which give the public the illusion of a democratic process while in fact they subvert true democracy. When Netanyahu made that declaration his Party, Likud had only 18 out of 120 MKs in the Knesset (Yesh Atid Party had 19 MKs !)  He was elected Likud Leader by less than 50,000 votes of fee paying members in the Likud Primaries. Later on in the last General elections Likud secured as a Party some half-million votes out of a total of 3.8 million voters, itself out of an electorate of 5.7m. Does that pyramid qualify Netanyahu, or indeed any other successor, to be the Prime Minister of the Jewish People let alone allowing him to exercise presidential powers sidestepping the Knesset? 
2. After the last elections Netanyahu formed a Coalition supported by 68 MKs out of the total of 120 MKs. A coalition is a contract for a government program between a number of parties, in this case 5 Parties.  But Netanyahu governed and behaved like a dictator ignoring these 5 Parties whose members and ideologies are far apart.  That reflects the dysfunctional democracy in Israel. All the 120 MKs, Coalition and Opposition alike were content. Why?! They were happy with salaries higher than their counterparts in Western Democracies. Each MK is equipped with an air conditioned office suite with private washroom in the Knesset building complete with a political assistant, a secretary and a private chauffeured limousine. Definitely 5 Star conditions, status and accommodation!, the envy of any MP in the UK.  Can you imagine any fool wanting to interrupt such privileged conditions until he secures the assured pension thereafter!?  So they acquiesce resting to enjoy everyday of hopefully a "Long Parliament with nobody dare telling them for God's sake go!"
3. Netanyahu on every occasion asserted that his government would last all the 4 years term. It sounded plausible because by then he could see Obama and Abu Mazen off and emerge triumphant addressing a Republican President and Senate. So Israeli politics went into a slumber. Yesh Atid Finance Minister Lapid convinced himself that by the end of 4 years he could sort out the country's finances as the Gas revenues from the Mediterranean would start to fill the coffers. Justice Minister Tsipi Livni thought by the end of 4 years she might agree with Abu Mazen a peace plan. The Opposition Parties were warring inside their ranks and had no time to prepare programs or plans to challenge and replace the Government. They all thought they had plenty of time for the next general elections. In Israel the citizens vote for a Party. Therefore an MK is not accountable directly to the voters So Governments and Prime Ministers can only be weakened not by the pressure of the Opposition but from within their own Party.
4. Oppositions in Israel are impotent. Amongst other reasons they never prepare themselves to be the alternative governments because they rely on the absurd period of 3 months to prepare between dissolution and reconvening of the Knesset. In the UK this period is hardly 3 weeks! So the Parties hold Primaries which are the most corrupt and corrupting of the electoral systems there. In the New Speak world of Israel they call them Democracy! The Parties waste the 3 month hurling invectives at each other whilst throwing out every possible dirty linen in public; and the Media eggs them on with daily polls and theoretical constructs and deconstructs of possible outcomes of the Knessets' results and possible coalitions until the electorate, or some 40 per cent of them, get so disillusioned, they give up on the idea of voting altogether leaving the rest confused not knowing Left from Right.  In the end Tel Aviv Cafes' regulars allied with the gated wealth in its suburbs bring new groups and parties that are here today gone tomorrow. History and ideologies are thrown to the wind. So the last Elections of 2013 produced only 19 MKs for Likud (Jabotinsky/Begin) and 15 for Labour (Weitzman/Ben Gurion)!!
5. Netanyahu, a super tactician understood all that well and exploited Israel's dysfunctional political system to the full using demagoguery and rhetoric. And after years at the helm he started to view with derision and contempt other leaders in Israel and often for good measure even those abroad. With the slogans of the dangers of Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah he can always rely on his speciality of raising fear to bolster his popularity. And who dares question or even suggest that his policies themselves are actually inviting and perpetuating these dangers while converting the Arabs inside Israel into fifth column and the Arabs outside into potential suicide bombers; Shahids, fuelling hostility and anti-Semitisms abroad. But away from the suffering peripheries and the porous borders, Israelis in the State of Tel-Aviv feel secure and forget that Jews in Israel are a tiny minority in a sea of 350 million Arabs all, after years of frustration wish them ill. Size does matter! Netanyahu supported by Republican Senators and some wealthy American Jews felt invincible. "Why man, he doth bestride the narrow world like a Colossus, and we petty men walk under his huge legs and peep about to find ourselves dishonourable graves"  And sadly some of our best Jewish lads and many young Palestinians do end in those graves in a continuous tragedy of useless violent confrontations and wars.
6. And the Jordan flows on to the Dead Sea and all is quite on the Al-Sissi Egyptian Border. Suddenly all fell apart when Netanyahu's co-habiting partner Lieberman, Leader of Yisrael Beytenu Party dissolved their merged Partnership of Likud-Beytenu. Netanyahu lost his composure and nerve and any reason or rationale left in him were thrown to the wind.  He lashed out against all, right and left, in Israel and abroad: Samson-like against all: Obama, Europe, Abu Mazen, his ministers, his coalition partners. Then he was brutally reminded of Hamas and Gaza that he himself had left alone to build their missiles and dig their tunnels undisturbed during his premiership and he woke up to wage a war that was overdue while he was fighting the world.  Apart from few MKs on the Left and the Arab MKs who were predicted to raise legitimate voices of protest and dissent he calculated that other Jewish Parties would not dare raise theirs' at a time of war when national unity and the endangered existence of Israel are at stake. This has been the order of the day. But lo and behold! some did dissent, not from the Opposition but from his own Party and Coalition and even from within his Defence and Security Inner Cabinet. Panicked! What does Netanyahu do? He did not pursue the Gaza War to a positive conclusion while appealing to the Gazans over the heads of Hamas. Such course could have opened the door for a permanent solution to the continued pressure cooker of the 1.8 million in Gaza while helped miraculously by Al-Sissi in Egypt. Instead, Netanyahu turns on his own Coalition Partners to save his worn out premiership that was leading Israel nowhere.  And he misused every rule and convention riding rough shod on the Coalition, the Knesset and all its members.
7. In terse letters he dismissed  Finance Minister Lapid, the leader of 19 MKs and Justice Minister Tsipi Livni of another 6 MKs. Remember he himself had only 18 MKs! He dared and gambled on all the bank and amazingly against all the odds  he came  up on top. Why? Simply because the leaders of all the Parties were taken by surprise unprepared for a considerate response having been lulled by Netanyahu to think that the Coalition would serve the full 4 years. With all the Mks, Coalition and Opposition having settled on a four years uninterrupted term they were stunned and caught unprepared with no answer or counterattack.
8. Netanyahu dismissed Lapid and Livni personally as ministers. They could have themselves tabled a no confidence motion in Netanyahu and no doubt would have been joined by the Opposition Parties prompting the President to ask the leader of the Opposition heading the No-Confidence vote to form a government without plunging the country into premature and unnecessary general elections. All Lapid's ministers and Livni's ministers could have stayed to continue with their programs as part of an alternative government or at least as part of a care-taking government during the interim election's period. They should have dared Netanyahu to sack each one of them separately. Instead, they stupidly and meekly, all of them, tendered their resignations to Netanyahu. And once Elections were declared he was left personally holding all the ministries free to appoint and groom new MKs from Likud. And so for 3 months he could also govern virtually as a dictator regaling himself alone with the full political stage and media coverage of the Prime Minister ready for re-election.
9. That left the leaders of the Parties running all over the place. No MK wanted the elections. And certainly it was not in the national interest with the country facing a hostile Middle East and militant Arab populations in Gaza and the West Bank. The sudden Elections was caused because neither the Opposition nor Yesh Atid and Hatenua used or even attempted to exercise their constitutional right to offer an alternative government. They could have insisted with a willing Opposition to join in a vote of no-confidence in the Knesset as the basic laws afford them. Instead they all let Netanyahu outmanoeuvre them. "The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars but in ourselves that we are underlings!"
10. And so we start to witness a tragic farce on our TVs screened to us and to friend and foe alike. This bizarre politics is at the heart of the problems facing the people of Israel inside and damaging its image abroad.  Recent  years exposed the fault lines of our dysfunctional democracy and its  dangers,  where our politicians are allied to wealth, monopolies and power groups disregarding and discarding the suffering citizens exposing the fact simply that Israel is not governed by its people for its people. And when you add to this the special demographic composition of our population you realise the process of our internal disintegration and the existential dangers that we are being dragged towards.
11. Prof Trachtenberg studying the socio-economic picture of Israel following the famous clamour for Social Justice in Rothschild Boulevard in Tel Aviv three years ago concluded that the country is divided into seven sectors. Now we are facing an even wider and bigger division politically. Therefore: How can we expect future social and political cohesion?  How can we expect the future Government to be more stable and the future Knesset more effective? How can we restore a proper balance between our three arms of the state? How can we link the peripheries with the centre? How can we integrate our Arab Minorities into our national institutions? How can we avoid the spilling of the violence from across the borders into our streets and towns? Sadly we have become so much inward orientated that we seem to be living in a Ghetto of our own creation. And so instead of minding the raging volcano over us in Pompey we are fiddling with politics in burning Rome!
12. We need to understand that we can not draw close together Trachtenberg’s seven sectors by decree. We cannot create a uniform culture or a cohesive society instantly. Such a process needs few generations to transform changes in attitudes and ways of life. Successive governmental education programs and billions of words pouring  out of pens of mainly European  orientated writers for the last 60 years in Israel drew us no nearer to become one people. Fear and the shadow of wars unfortunately were the only tools that bound us together. And cruel unscrupulous politicians use them today out of self interest or just ignorance, and can we judge which is worse. On the other hand selecting and creating new state institutions can change and speed up the process of cohesion and integration.  And no better and more powerful such institution than a new electoral system that can empower all and each citizen making him/her feel genuinely, visually and practically part of being in charge of our shared destiny. In this way we would give our Democracy the chance to reform itself to produce a government by the people for the people speeding up the pace towards cohesion and solidarity and helping the integration of Trachtenberg’s seven sectors. So which electoral system?
13. The President's Commission on Government and Governance chaired by Professor Megidor (of which I was an active member) recommended a combination of Constituency and Proportional Representation System, (in Hebrew Ezori/Artzi i.e. Constituency/Party System). Following that recommendation, Prof Gideon Doron, Prof Zeev Segal and I proposed TR Total Representation (in Hebrew YESH Yitsug Shalem) to be that   System. TR fuses the First Past The Post (FPTP) and Proportional Representation (PR) combining the two in  one ballot one vote in the ratio of 75/25 i.e. 90 constituency MKs and 30 Party MKs. It is simplicity itself.  So how does it work?
14. Briefly: Israel is to be divided into 90 constituencies. Only candidates who offer themselves in those 90 constituencies can qualify for election to the Knesset. Each has to belong to a party that follow his/her name on the ballot paper. Each constituency elects one candidate as the MK for that constituency  along the lines of the British Majoritarian System of first past the post (FPTP) Once the 90 Constituency MKs are elected all their votes are dropped from the count of the total votes cast nationally. The rest of the votes are then divided proportionally amongst the competing Parties to elect the 30 Party MKs out of the same pool of candidates that offered themselves in the 90 Constituencies. Full details of this system are embodied in a Draft Law Tromit (similar to a White Paper in Westminster) which was tabled in the 18th Knesset on 21/07/2010 and signed collectively, at my personal insistence after arduous discussion with each one, by 5 very senior MKs (Shaul Mofaz, Meir Shetreet, Avi Dichter, Amir Peretz and Eitan Cabel) Hopefully it could be revived and be implemented in the next Knesset.
15. TR is specifically suited for Israel to take into consideration the composition of its immigrant segments that need to be integrated into its  old population and its twenty per cent Arab minority. "TR" Total Representation is a powerful tool that can help in that direction. It is a modern system that eminent academics and political practitioners acknowledge its potential to reform political democracy as it is evolving in our time, not only in Israel but in many other countries in Europe. But the advantages for Israel are enormous and vital to fight the prevalent corruption in the political establishment and to repair its dysfunctional democracy.
16. Many books have been published in Hebrew by Prof Gideon Doron and his colleagues at the Tel Aviv University and The Political Science Association. These can be obtained from CECI, The Citizens' Empowerment Centre in Israel, 40 George Wise St Tel Aviv 61390. Other books were published in English by Dr Ken Ritchie, the Chief Executive of the Electoral Reform Society in London and by me and can be obtained from Amazon or downloaded in Kindle.
17. And last on a personal note: I have devoted the last 15 years of my life, as my friends in Israel know to advance the case of TR/Yesh. I served Israel in many capacities and put my life on the line for it in 3 wars. However now at my ripe age when meeting my Creator is just round the corner I believe TR/Yesh is the best bequest I could have given to my country. I hope and pray that the new young MKs in the new Knesset will see its merits and succeed in adopting it after their predecessors in the 3 past Knessets (16th, 17th and 18th) failed unfortunately to implement it to the cost of the manifest lack of stability in government and cohesion in society. 
Aharon Nathan, Wimbledon, 15th Jan 2015


The following are some of the many advantages of TR for Israel.  
1) As in the UK each of the 90 constituencies either has an incumbent MK or a chosen rival candidate ready to fight the following general elections. Therefore candidates are always ready and in touch. And so is the country if and when a new general election is declared. In this way huge amounts of money are saved and the time needed between dissolution and reconvening of the Knesset is drastically reduced.
2) TR (YESH) does not need the undemocratic Threshold (Achuz Chasima) as the Party MK (30 Seats) needs 3/4 times as many votes as the Constituency MK (90 Seats) Therefore the chances of small parties manipulating  the government are slim.
3) Yesh eliminates the need for corrupt and undemocratic primaries that are infected by money and graft. Democracy is exercised directly by the citizens and not through two stage processes, first primaries and then general elections.
4) Yesh eliminates Gerrymandering, strife and bad blood internally within  Parties (in Hebrew Reshimot Hissul)
5) Yesh guarantees the direct link and accountability of the MK to his constituents at all times keeping him/her well informed and linked to the grass roots.
6) Yesh produces two main big Parties and ensures that one of them may together with just one medium or small party form a stable government. Academically produced simulations show such outcomes. Thus Governments can survive the full term of the Knesset and can take bold necessary decisions especially with regard to the Peace Process, without worries of being overthrown.
7) And above all under Yesh, the watching eyes of the constituents in each constituency could ensure that corruptions are exposed and nipped in the bud before growing into scandalous and criminal proportions. And beside the constituents who voted for the MK in each Constituency there will be his/her opponent from a rival party waiting to pounce with the first smell of corruption is in the air.
8) In the absence of Primaries Yesh provides a simple mechanism to elect or replace Party Leaders. Basically, each leader of each party is elected or re-elected in the middle of the Knesset term by the candidates of the party in the last election (not by the party’s MKs, who will naturally not include all the candidates). All these candidates cast the actual votes each obtained in the preceding general election. These votes are those of the real supporters of the party in the last election, and not by the votes of paid members who often are recruited for that purpose. The selection becomes clean and transparent with no corrupt practices and outside interferences.

All the above points are dealt with at length in the form of Q&A in two books I published on Israel:
Chapters 11 and 12 in "Israel : State or Ghetto" available in Amazon and Kindle.
Chapters 15 and16 in "Hametsiut Machtiva" in Hebrew available from CECI, Tel-Aviv

Thursday, 15 January 2015

The New Sanhedrin; Israel and the Diaspora need each other


1. Whether we like or not the fate of the  Jewish People and our own future are intertwined with Israel. Without a strong Israel no Jew  can stand tall and safe anywhere.  So the continued existence of Israel is as essential to the Israelis as it is to any Jew wherever he is. However equally without a strong rational Jewish voice in the Diaspora it will be difficult for Israel to keep a backing for its very existence vis-à-vis a hostile public in Europe today and may be in the Americas tomorrow. The political leaders of Israel do not seem to see it that way. To them the size of Israel's territory is everything and Jewish wealth backed by a strong army is the only way to secure their objective.  The time has come for a sober and wise Jewish Voice which is detached from the Israeli internal politics to be heard to save all of us, inside and outside Israel from the existential dangers facing us, all of us.

2. But before discussing where to find such Jewish voice we need to understand the context of events inside Israel now. Netanyahu declared after his most recent meeting with President Obama that he is the Prime Minster of the Jewish People! How? Who elected him? Who empowered him? At the time he represented only 18 out of 120 Members of the Knesset ! And following the recent tension he created with the White House and few of the governments of the EU especially that of France following the tragic events in Paris he seems to interfere more and more with  the delicate relationships of the Jewish Communities in the Diaspora  countries with their public and  authorities. Netanyahu's internal politics and those of the messianic extreme Right in Israel have  become weapons in the hands of  our enemies in the region and our critics in Europe.

3. My friend James Leek, a prominent member of the Jewish community in Wimbledon ventured the question " Here in our Jewish community and in public meetings at  our local Synagogue criticism or dissent from some of Israel's Government's policies  tend to be stifled under the mistaken banner of loyalty to the State of Israel" and he asked what is the solution. And how to voice our justified concerns without being attacked as disloyal ? It is legitimate and even obligatory owing to our situation in the world to defend Israel in every way possible. But that should not include or imply defending the government policies of Israel. Within Israel itself, and even within the Knesset itself many groups do dissent from and criticise government policies without being called disloyal. So what to do. Not being citizens of Israel participating in its taxation and defence system the Diaspora can not dictate to Israel what to do. But it can advise.

4. And may be one way to do that is to set up a recognised new forum of delegates drawn from the entire Jewish communities  of the world similar to the way that the Zionist Congress was initiated. Let us  call this forum  The  New Sanhedrin to serve as a popular accredited watch group to review the policies pursued by the three Arms of State of Israel (Knesset, Government and Supreme Court) and their impact on the Diasporas. Such group can be  made up of 69 Members drawn from and elected by the three locations of Jewish populations : with Israel providing 27, the USA 27 and the other Diasporas including UK France Germany South America and the Far East etc another 15. The  Bloomsbury Zionists produced  the Balfour Declaration . Let Wimbledon announce the birth of The New Sanhedrin.

5. Some would say that we already have a plethora of Jewish institutions world wide what with the Jewish Agency, Aipac, Saban, J Street, the variety of Jewish funds for Israel etc etc etc. Unfortunately all these institutions are led by wealthy, super rich Jews in Europe and America  linked with their counter part wealthy Israelis dominating Israel's main Parties. And with the weakening and almost demise of the JNF, TheJewish National Fund representing the whole spectrum of  all levels and ideologies of the Jewish people everywhere in the past, the voices of the ordinary Jews of the Diaspora now stopped to be counted and even  heard.  And yet these ordinary Jews who are not represented today  are the groups that are exposed to and are the first to suffer from the  dangers inside and outside Israel.

6. The failure of Israeli Democracy to reform itself by changing its dysfunctional Electoral System is causing much harm to the future of Israel inside and damaging its  image abroad. Three Knessets,  the 16th 17th and18th, through 3 Draft Laws (TROMIT)  could have rectified this situation and yet failed to debate let alone adopt  the new  system of Total Representation TR ( in Hebrew Yitsug Shalem YESH ) a System that fuses the First Past The Post and Proportional Representation PR.  This is a system that guarantees the accountability of the MK, confers dynamic representation of all sectors of the population including the Arab minorities while at the same time ensures the stability of governments by creating bigger political parties. The function of the proposed new forum is to debate such issues and new ideas and see if they can help to make Israel more cohesive inside and united in solidarity with the Diaspora vis-à-vis a hostile world outside.

7. And of course the New Sanhedrin need to put  at the top of its agenda the urgent solutions of our relations with the Arabs on its  three levels, the Arab minority in Israel (over 20 per cent of Israel) the future of Gaza and the West Bank and above all our relations with 350 million Arabs surrounding us. Future Iran's Bomb and present Pakistani Bombs are not the immediate threat today even if they continue to tick.  The Arabs and Muslims don't need nuclear power to threaten our existence. Hamas, Hezbollah, the violent  Muslim  crowds in and around the Mosque in Jerusalem are portending  new massacres.   And yet our wealthy Jews in and outside Israel, are more concerned by the fluctuating fortunes in   the Stock Exchanges. The extreme messianic Right in Israel calling for all the Jews in the world to settle in Israel is shifting the emphasis back to the Thirties and defining our Diasporas as alien implants and not full rightful citizenships. Let us not allow the 1930s in Europe to spill by default into the 1940s. It would be too late even for our grand children.

Aharon Nathan, Wimbledon, 15th January 2015

Friday, 8 August 2014

Gaza: Make our Hindsight into our Foresight


Aharon Nathan's  opening Statement as delivered at the Israel Forum Meeting on  11 Sept 2011 in Wimbledon Synagogue sharing a panel with  Mr Stephen Hammond MP, Mr Alex Brummer of the Daily Mail and Dr Simon Joseph in the Chair

"Israel is a paradox. Its spectacular achievements in every sphere whether in science, technology, medicine etc., contrast sharply with its utter failure in politics.  As in Greek tragedies, this one fault is bringing about Israel’s downfall. I believe Israel is definitely not safer now than ten years ago.  Arik Sharon apart, its political leaders throughout those ten years have pushed Israel towards a dark slippery slope which threatens its very existence today.


This grave situation is rooted in 3 problems that urgently need practical  solutions:

1.   Reforming Israel’s electoral system of pure proportional representation to bring about stability of government and integration of its splintered society including its Arab minority;

2.   Directing Israel’s policies towards defendable borders based on a 3 state solution: Palestine, Israel and the State of Gaza;

3.   Improving Israel’s image in the world by widening the legitimacy for its existence through focusing on the ethnic cleansing by the Arab countries of their entire Jewish populations that has left them in Hitler’s words: Judenrein, Arab lands clean of Jews. 

These 3 problems are interlinked and intertwined.  If left without action, Israel' support will shrink under the attrition of intermittent Arab and Islamist hostilities, backed by vicious ignorant European public. Time is running out."  (Sept 2011)



What Today, the 5th August 2014?   What we needed then we still need now: Root and branch solutions. To achieve that we must not confine ourselves to reacting to the last events and headlines but be guided by the above underlying causes of the present conflict.

And what to do specifically the day after this War is over?  A Mini Marshal Plan in exchange for Demilitarisation. We must catch the present golden opportunity that Egypt is affording us to deal directly with the leadership of local Hamas in Gaza (with Abu Mazen but better without) to establish a demilitarised viable autonomous entity in Gaza backed by financial help of Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States (not Qatar) USA and Europe (definitely not the UN).  Commentaries and detailed analysis on website: www.aharonnathan.com

Tuesday, 22 July 2014

In the aftermath of the Gaza War: A Mini Marshall Plan to break the vicious circle


1. Amidst the sadness frustration and anger we have to think where to go next once a cease fire is agreed. The Israelis showed restraint and humanity in conducting this war. The IDF displayed yet again its moral rectitude facing death and provocation. However once the guns are silenced Israel and the region have to invoke reason and wisdom in dealing with the aftermath. The continuous vicious circle has to be broken and replaced with a new thinking rooted in reason and wisdom and not in emotion and ideologies. The Israeli leadership must initiate and push for a comprehensive plan to delineate a future course for Gaza. We all have to be positive and creative. The real victims of the present confrontation between Hamas and Israel are the 1.7 million Palestinians living today in Gaza. They are our neighbours and will continue to be so. Paradoxically if handled wisely by Israel and the west, they can emerge as the war's main beneficiary.  How? 

2. Like everything else in the Middle East we have to start with geography and demography, and only then build our analysis and conclusions. The Palestinians are Sunnis and so are the Egyptians. Gaza’s borders are: Israel, Egypt and the Mediterranean. Today its population is imprisoned within these three sides resulting in a pressure cooker situation which was bound sooner or later, eventually and predictably to explode. It exploded three times in the last five years, but this time the situation is different. Hamas has proved to be a formidable enemy with a well equipped and disciplined army, innovative and far sighted. It is useless for Israelis to take that lightly and, hankering to the past, keep repeating how we fought and won so many past wars against the Palestinians and our neighbours. It is not victory we need but positive long term peaceful co-existence.  Power and force have to be tempered with wisdom and charity to produce peace. It is more productive to analyse the present leaving the past to historians.

3. Egypt's General Al-Sisi has broken completely the strength of the Islamist Brotherhood at home. Hamas is a branch of the Moslem Brotherhood, and so is Qatar's leadership. The last thing that General Al-Sisi wants is to join Qatar and  be part of  any solution of the present crisis. Erdogan in Turkey is neither Ataturk nor Suleiman the Magnificent. He undermined Turkey's pivotal powerful position between East and West, almost wantonly and foolishly, and now he is deep in the Syrian multi ethnic morass. Thus today the only possible mediator is Egypt. It is in its interest and ours for it to assume this role. However Egypt needs the backing of the West and the funds from Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf States, to stabilize and lift Gaza's population economically from the dire state that it finds itself today  rendering  Hamas irrelevant while reasserting Egypt as the dominant power in the Arab World.

4. For Israel too it is a golden opportunity to separate Gaza in a State or a political entity of its own away from the West Bank, thus sparing itself further conflict with the Palestinians and avoiding future pincer attack simultaneously from Gaza and Hebron.  Hamas is a fervent religious movement which is feeding on the misery, resentment and hatred that Gaza's prison situation engenders. However it is the only government and civil administration there and it is in power at the moment. So any initiative and solution has to include it. An Israeli/Egyptian open cooperation backed by the West could help Gaza today by offering and encouraging a potentially rosy future for its people. But that has to be and perceived to be in the self interest of the three participants, Egypt, Israel and Gaza including its present Hamas Administration. This latter should be maintained as its dismantling will lead to chaos. The grave mistake of Iraq should be avoided here. Hostile civil authority is better than no authority. However any cooperation with Hamas authorities should be confined only to those of its members inside Gaza, The Hamas leadership in exile must be excluded and prevented from coming back. We have to create conditions in Gaza that could motivate its people to prefer peaceful coexistence with us. We cannot impose a government on them; they have to choose themselves the alternative to Hamas. And in time as their situation improves they will.

5. We and the Egyptian on our borders used the big stick to hit the Hamas Government in Gaza. It will work and bring Hamas to a cease fire which could give us a period of quiet interim coexistence. To make that permanent we all need a huge carrot that will move the population to raise their voices against conflict and hostility. This Carrot is a comprehensive and detailed Rehabilitation Plan, a sort of a Mini Marshall Plan that will transform Gaza not to a Singapore but may be more like one of the Gulf Emirates. Gaza has all the resources especially the human educated element to create such an entity. Egypt can help but Israel most of all  can be instrumental in bringing this about.

6. The Saudi Peace Initiative is still on the table for Israel to consider. It has been foolish in the past to ignore it, and of course it is doubly foolish today. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States are faced with real dangers from the Shia inside their countries and from their neighbours Iran and Iraq outside. They are also facing an Islamist wave that can engulf them and topple their governments. They want neither Islamist Qatar nor Shiite countries to be part of any rehabilitation plans for Gaza. For those reasons they are ready to fund any future comprehensive plan but only through Egypt.  They have already pledged such funds. In order to avoid these funds ending up in corrupted pockets the Gaza Rehabilitation Authority should be set up in Cairo where all funds have to go through it with some form of international auditing. All this is in order for honesty and probity to be seen to be exercised. Cairo and Egypt will benefit from its pivotal position in all plans, and thus would control any possible hostile infiltration from Gaza into Sinai. As part of this Authority’s remit it would set up an adequate and viable sea port and a small airport to ensure flights to Egypt and Israel and from there to connect to the outside world. Egyptian architects, financial personnel and expertise should provide the backbone of such an Authority and Israel should be ready to add its own to help when called upon. And after all it is only Israel that can provide the electricity and water needed to restore normality to the ordinary people of Gaza.  Gaza will in this way orientate itself towards Egypt. The first fruit of this scheme will be profitable employment in Gaza, which will divert its workers from digging tunnels and preparing missiles.

7. All this and the reconstruction of the local infrastructure in Gaza itself should be undertaken under the supervision of this New Authority. These activities will create immediate employment. In time, Gaza with new hotels and beaches, would attract tourism from all sides including Israelis who are so fond of availing themselves today of Sharm El-Sheikh and other facilities in Sinai. Mutual interest of Israel and Gaza will prove to be the best guarantee for peaceful coexistence between neighbours. Slowly this process will spill over to cultural cooperation in education, literature and the fine art. And here is a word of warning. If the reconstruction of the war damage is left for Hamas to carry out it is a recipe for future disaster because all Donors' contributions will go to revive Hamas and keep its stranglehold on the population. It would be the restart of the vicious circle.

8. And what about the West in all this?  What is the role of America and Europe apart from joining the Donors' Club. They can carry the task of the demilitarisation of Gaza. Such operation here will be much easier than dealing with the chemical weapons in Syria. It would have to be done with the full cooperation of the Hamas Government. This process would convert the Hamas Government into a responsible government for all the people of Gaza. The cooperation will bestow on Hamas the recognition and the respectability it needs to shed the terror label stuck on her for so long. Why should Hamas agree? Because it is exchanging prosperity for a doubtful weaponry which proved time and again to be unable to stand up to the  power of Israel Defence Force, the IDF.

9. Ultimately it is up to the Palestinians, how they want to shape their future. However from Israel’s point of view Gaza has to be separated from the West Bank absolutely to avoid exposing itself in the future to simultaneous pincer attacks from Hebron and Gaza thereby cutting itself in half. Therefore to avoid another conflict and war this physical separation has to be complete whatever Gaza and the West Bank decide to do in the future. Absence of conflict is as much the interest of the Palestinians as that of the Israelis. They may choose to be in a federation the way East and West Pakistan started after Independence. Or they may choose to be two separate States knowing what ultimately happened to Pakistan. As for Israel it will need to deal with each side separately and directly and not via a central authority. Israel cannot prevent the Palestinians to unite if so they choose but it should put in place every necessary measure to prevent direct physical link through Israel between the two sides.  With all the greatest respect and admiration with which Abu Mazen is regarded justifiably by the international community, I believe that he should have no role in dealing with the outcome of the present Gaza War, not least anyway because of the way he is viewed in Gaza. It will be a grave mistake for Israel to support, initiate or encourage Abu Mazen to preside over shaping the final order in Gaza following this war. Hopefully the interrupted negotiations between Tsipi Livni and Saeb Erakat will resume to resolve the impasse in the West Bank.

Aharon Nathan, London, 22nd July 2014
(N.B.  Aharon Nathan set up and headed the first Israeli Civil Administration in the Gaza Strip following the Suez War of 1956)

Sunday, 20 July 2014

Gaza Conflict - Background and solutions to Israel-Arab Conflict


Note : With the war raging in Gaza today friends ask me what is the background and what are the solution for this ever continuing conflict. The following is my view which I held for many years and believe it holds true today as it did for all those years. It appeared as  chapter 14 of my book,  Israel : State or Ghetto

Israel Arab Conflict (Address to the Academy for Political Development in Zagreb on 15 April 2009)      

Seeking solutions for the Israel-Arab Conflict      

Historical Background:
1. The Israel/Palestine conflict we witness today started as an Arab/Jewish confrontation at the beginning of the 20th century, with the rise of nationalism. The Jews were being persecuted in Eastern Europe but found no refuge in the West. They needed a national home and the only place they could claim any historical connection with was the Holy Land, the ancient home of the wandering Jew. Meanwhile, the Arabs were trying to free themselves, first from the yoke of their Muslim brothers, the Ottoman Turks, and then from the colonialist powers. Nationalism was the order of the age everywhere.

2. At the time, there were also the Middle Eastern Jewish Communities who lived, co-existing with other peoples, in Arab countries, sometimes tolerated but often not. As nationalism bubbled up everywhere they attempted to join and identify themselves with their Arab majorities – but they were never accepted. Their story is often overshadowed by the myriads of books written about Europe’s Jews and the establishment of Israel. Yet today, these descendants of Jews from Arab countries make up half of Israel’s population. Their claim to the right to live in peace in Israel is stronger than that of the European Jews, and even more so than that of the Palestinians. Unlike the Palestinians, with the whole of the huge Arab world open to them, Middle Eastern Jews have nowhere else to go but to live in tiny Israel. Think about it in another way. Let us for argument’s sake accept the Arab contention that Palestine, together with Israel, are all part of the Arab Land. It follows therefore that what in fact actually happened was that Eastern Jews have moved from one corner to another within the same Land. They are not invaders, not settlers. They are natives, and their ancestors were natives before the Arab conquest swept the Middle East in the seventh century. They are not the Crusaders that the Arabs today like to call Jews of European origin. To fully understand the present ME conflict it is important to learn about this aspect of it to see that there is not one set of ME refugees but two. And no better way to introduce this aspect of the conflict than to tell my own personal story. I was both witness and victim of the cruel process that made me a refugee in my own land.

3. I was born in Iraq, and was immersed in its culture and shared in its national aspirations. I was an Iraqi Jew growing up together with Iraqi Muslims. But my personal effort to integrate into the social and political fabric of the country, and God knows I did try, was always met with a rebuff by them. To them I was an alien. And by the time Israel was born in 1948, this rebuff became literally persecution. When all the doors were closed in my face, together with so many other Jews of my generation who were denied exit visas, we had to find a way to escape; literally to flee the country by crossing the border on foot. In my case that was via Iran, whose people I will always be indebted to for my safe passage at my desperate time of need.

4. There was no other country but Israel which would give refuge to me and to some 150 000 Jews who followed in 1950/52. These people could trace their ancestry back through 2500 years of continuous life in Iraq – long before the Arab Conquest. I arrived at the absorption centre in Israel in 1949. I found there a mixture of people: all dejected, all helpless. My fellow refugees from Arab countries were desperately trying to rebuild their lives out of nothing in a land of nothing. But it was the sight of the remnants of the Holocaust camps that broke my heart and my spirit. I saw frightened shadows of human beings, dazed, confused and broken, trying to regain their existence as humans. But worst of all, instead of natural hatred, rage and bitterness I found many of them trying to remove the concentration camp numbers on their arms because they felt guilty for being alive and ashamed of not having put up a fight before allowing themselves to be led as sheep to the Gas chambers. It is the combined images of the ethnically cleansed Arab Jews who lost their countries, and the Holocaust remnants of European Jews who lost their dignity, that are engraved in my being and in the mind of every Jew who says: “never again” That is why Israelis feel the need to keep their military power and even their nuclear shield –not because they are on a Samson-like suicidal mission. It is because they are determined to live with the pride and dignity denied to them in other countries throughout the ages. They are determined now that if they must die, they want to die fighting. For the Arabs, if they want to coexist with Israel, they should first remember this.

5. These fears, as reflected in my own personal story, must also be understood against wider Jewish history. Two thousand years of persecution, execution and forced conversion to Christianity and Islam, culminated in Hitler’s Final Solution, a solution which wiped out almost half the world’s Jewish population on the watch of the civilised world.

6. Today, it is worrying Israelis and Jews alike that what happened in Germany under the Nazis in the early 1930s is being re-enacted in a startlingly similar way in Europe. Every aspect of life in Israel, its people, its institutions, its places of learning, even its acclaimed courts of justice, are being demonized. Recently, this demonizing has been organized and reinforced by concerted bans and boycotts here in Europe in protest they say against the occupation of Palestinian lands, which in fact the majority of the people of Israel would be happy to hand back. All this sends shivers down the spines of Jews everywhere, reminding them of the anti-Semitic demonizing propaganda of the 1930s in Germany, which was the precursor of, and prepared the ground for the Holocaust. As Condoleezza Rice stated recently: Anti-Semitism is not just a historical fact but a current event.

7. The Arab World has played and continues to play its active part, too, in the Jewish tragedy. During World War 2 they made Jewish life in their midst a living hell. By the early 1950’s, when the safe haven of Israel opened, some 900,000 Jews were ethnically cleansed to Israel from Arab countries leaving most Arab countries what the Nazis called Judenrein, lands without Jews. Therefore what the Nazis failed to do the Arab countries accomplished and perpetuated. And the world accepts that as normal.

8. In contrast, today, 20 per cent of Israeli citizens are Arabs who enjoy full rights. They sit in parliament and can find their way, as indeed they have done, to sit in the various national institutions – even in the cabinet and in the Supreme Court. Nobody denies their right to be where they are, having lived in Israel even before the creation of Israel. But in Iraq, there is not one single Jew now living there.

9. Iraqi Jews were part of the tide of 900,000 Jewish refugees from Arab countries. Their plight and fate are forgotten because Israel did not leave them in camps to rot and did not ask the UN to set up agencies to perpetuate their misery and status as refugees. With help from Jews worldwide, these Jewish refugees with their bare hands gave themselves dignity, security and a future in stark contrast to the way rich, very rich, Arabs treated the then 700,000 Palestinian Refugees and disgracefully continue to treat their descendents since. Consequently, today only the Palestinian Refugees are remembered.

10. This, however, is not to gloss over the events of the 1948 War when the Arab Armies attacked the Jews in Palestine. Here no excuse or justification should wipe out or absolve either side of the wrongdoings, whether these were committed by State armies or by individual political leaders and local commanders. We need to deal not only with the memories but also with the outcome of that war. Irrespective of which side was to blame, the Arab countries which attacked, or the nascent State of Israel which needed to defend itself. It is the outcome that matters. Unless a just practical solution is found for the Palestinian refugees in the same way the Jews dealt with their own Jewish refugees, the Middle East will have no peace. But this will not happen until – in the words of Prince Hassan of Jordan – both sides begin to internalise the disaster and the suffering that befell each of them as a result of that war.

11. The Arabs, and recently even the historians of the conflict, name what happened to the Palestinians in the 1948 War “The Naqba”: in Arabic, the Disaster. But they conveniently ignore the Arab Jews’ corresponding Naqba. The reason for this is that while the Palestinian Naqba was a consequence of a war, the Arab Jews’ Naqba had much deeper historical roots. It was the culmination of the Judenrein process which threw the Arab Jews out of Arab countries, a process that is still reflected right now in Arab attitudes and prevents any compromise or solution of the Arab/Israeli conflict that has been festering since the creation of Israel.

The Islamist Version of Judenrein:
12. Judenrein is land pure and clean of Jews. This is a dream that Hitler designed for Europe, but the Arabs fulfilled it in their countries. This is the Arab side of the Holocaust, the real tragic “NAQBAH” of the Jews who lived for centuries in Arab countries. Today every nation in Europe tries to apologise for this policy. Not so the Arabs. They are proud of their achievement, which they declare day and night as a matter of religious piety.

13. Unfortunately for the Arabs, as was so unfortunate for the fanatical Germans this is not helping the Arabs themselves. In fact it is at the heart of their problems, pulling them back to the dark ages. Islamic learning and tolerance brought the Enlightenment into Christian Europe, but recently it seems – sadly – to be receding from their own nations.

14. The solution to the Arab and especially the Palestinian plight in their relationship with Israel could have been resolved long time ago, if only their leaders had grasped the immorality of the concept of Judenrein, and even more so if the West stopped accepting it as the norm in Arab countries. This acquiescence fostered its encouragement, with disastrous effects for the Arabs themselves.

15. If, as recently as at the time of the evacuation of Gaza by Prime Minister Sharon, the Palestinians had stood up and said: we claim back Gaza as land belonging to the State of Palestine, restoring the status quo ante before the 6-day War, but we have no problem with the Jewish settlements there staying as part of Palestinian Gaza, with Israelis living the way they live today in Germany, England and the USA…. If the Palestinians had done this, today Gaza would have been the new Hong Kong of the Middle East, with Israel as its hinterland and market and source of finance. Unfortunately, they missed this chance, because the Judenrein that shaped their attitude towards Jews got the better of them. It continues to be the obstacle in the way of practical and mutually beneficial solutions.

16. Such a chance to act sensibly is still open and could prove to be the way forward today for the Palestinians with regard to the future State of Palestine. The ball is also in the court of the Syrians to start a process which will bring real peace and prosperity to the region. Bashar Al-Assad, the Syrian leader, who clamours for the Golan, should take the initiative and suggest that the Jews in the Golan Heights could stay – after the withdrawal of Israel – as citizens of Syria or as Israelis-in-residence in a Syrian Golan – subject, just like other citizens in Syria, to Syrian law. This is exactly the same way that foreigners live in England, France or Germany today. It is then that Israeli resistance to withdrawal on security grounds will melt away, and a great and prosperous Golan can offer itself to millions of tourists from all over the world, who will enjoy the fusion of Arab and Jewish culture reminiscent of the glorious days of Cordoba and Toledo.

The Way Forward:
17. Unfortunately the Arab countries surrounding Israel are facing acute internal problems of social strife, political bankruptcy and overwhelming population explosion. The Palestinians have been left to themselves, and they are revelling in their infighting and delusions, making it impossible to reach any accommodation with Israel. They have become a plaything in the hands of Arab countries who are fighting each other for supremacy; they are also a proxy in the Islamic tug-of-war between the Shiaa of Iran and the Sunni of Saudi Arabia and Bin Laden. New Nassers and new Arafats are popping up everywhere without the Arabs asking themselves what good their old heroes did for them and what purpose the new ones serve. With this hopeless situation prevailing, it was right and practical for Israel to build the controversial Security Wall and it was wise to act unilaterally to give both sides time to find a solution for co-existence. Although they acted late, Sharon and Olmert proved to be foresighted both in building the Security Wall and in evacuating Gaza.

18. Amidst this confusion, Arabs can only accept co-existence once it dawns on them that Israel is there to stay, not because of its army, not because of its history, not because of the Holocaust, but because the 6 million Jews in Israel (more than half of whom are descendents anyway of ethnically cleansed Arab Jewish Refugees) have nowhere else to go. They have no choice but to stand up and fight even if it is a war of mutual destruction with their enemies. Only this realization will convince the Arabs to seek mutually acceptable solutions.

19. On our side, the Israeli side, our social fissures and political instabilities are creating hesitancy and lack of resolve which are sabotaging the implementation of our only available policy: i.e securing ourselves unilaterally and quickly within defendable borders. These new borders have to be defended militarily and, even more importantly, they have to be acceptable in due course internationally through negotiation. We cannot solve these problems without introducing real changes in our political structures. Social divisions are impeding the process of fusing together our Jewish communities and integrating our Arab minorities. These, together with the political instability of governments, stand in the way both of our negotiations with the Arabs and the implementation of our only available policy of securing ourselves unilaterally. The new electoral system I have proposed: TR -- Total Representation – is key to the urgent changes needed to overcome these difficulties. At its core is the direct accountability of Parliament to ordinary citizens, making it easy for a broadly representative parliament and a stable government to evolve, and empowering them to make brave decisions for peace.

Conclusions and Solutions:
20. Unlike Christian or Muslim countries, Israel cannot be treated in isolation from the Jewish people worldwide. After what happened in Europe and in the Arab countries, Jews everywhere believe that the defeat of Israel would mean annihilation. Israel is all the Jewish People’s refuge of last resort.

21. Lasting Peace is not a matter of goodwill. It lasts only if it is based on the absence of potential future conflicts on the ground. In the aftermath of the recent tragic and unnecessary Gaza War, we Israelis, have to ask ourselves fundamental questions. These questions need to be daring, deep and all-encompassing. There is no doubt that for one century now our Arab neighbours have not accepted us. In turn we, on our side ceased long ago to try to understand them. A mental curtain has descended between the Arabs and us, and that includes our own Arab citizens. In fact we seem to live parallel lives – so much so that we have become accustomed to a view of each other only through telescopic gun-barrels.

22. The only thing that will work is maximum defensible real, physical separation of the two states of Israel and Palestine on the ground. The recent wars of Lebanon and Gaza and all the ensuing killing and destruction make separation more urgent and necessary – indeed mandatory. Gaza is at the core of the problem. It needs to be developed economically along the lines of Singapore or Hong Kong; it has to become a viable entity supporting its population. Some of its refugees have to be given means and opportunities and encouraged to resettle in the West Bank and in Arab Countries, including the sparsely-populated, labour-hungry Gulf. Its border to Sinai and Egypt has to be opened for free trade and interaction with the world beyond. Otherwise Gaza will remain a pressure cooker waiting to explode.

23. But Gaza also needs to cease being a potential threat to Israel. A situation has to be avoided where it can become the western arm of a future Palestinian pincer that together with Hebron on the eastern border of southern Israel will fuel future rising tension, leading to a conflagration that can have only one result: either Israel or Palestine will have to be divided into two halves, thus stoking up more violence. The solution here will have to be for Gaza to become an independent state. Europe has many examples of such small states that sprang into being out of realpolitik necessity. Today, the Palestinian President Abu Mazen’s West Bank is already separated from Hamas’s Gaza. Why not keep them that way for the sake of peace both for Israelis and Palestinians? Thus, four states will arise out of the old Palestine: Israel, Jordan, Palestine and the republic of Gaza. The result will be the final end and the last nail in the coffin of the ill-conceived British Mandate. These four states can join together in an economic Common Market that will bring stability, peace and prosperity to all their inhabitants.

24. How would the Egyptians react to the establishment of a separate state in Gaza? I believe they will welcome this solution which in effect would solve their own problem which is even more thorny and complex than that of Israel. Terrorist Gaza as it is today is a threat to Egypt through illegal infiltration. Hamas members find internal allies and homes amongst the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. The border with Sinai is porous and out of control because both sides of it are united in their hatred of Israel. All this will change once it becomes the border between two Arab sovereign states controlled by passports and visas the same way that Egypt today protects its border with Libya and the Sudan. Egypt can facilitate the filtering of refugees to other Arab countries from the State of Gaza where the latter’s government becomes responsible for taking back undesirable elements. The inhabitants of the State of Gaza will be more interested in their livelihood and sooner or later will themselves throw out Hamas. In the new situation Israel can legitimately in the eyes of the world defend vigorously and effectively its border against a hostile state which will be responsible for its actions. Israel and Egypt will then have identical common interest instead of the present ambivalent attitude towards the Gazans and towards each other.

25. Jerusalem has to be divided into: Jerusalem Capital of Israel; and Al-Quds Capital of Palestine - Twin Cities with a clear SEPARATION between the two. Without this no peace will survive. Arab inhabitants in Jerusalem (those who were annexed after the-6 Day War) should revert to Palestine citizenship but can live as residents in Jerusalem if their residence falls within Israeli Jerusalem. Likewise, Jews who choose to stay in Al-Quds can retain their Israeli citizenship but continue to live as residents in Palestine subject to its laws after a period of protection by Israel.

26. Similar status should apply (after a period of protection by the Israeli army) to all Israelis who choose to stay in the new Palestine. This includes the Jewish enclave in Hebron. The same arrangement should be accorded to the cluster of Jewish settlements which fall on the borders of Palestine, in accordance with the spirit of the exchange of letters between President Bush and Prime Minister Sharon of 14th April 2004. If the enclave of this cluster of settlements on the western border of new Palestine is allowed to remain within the sovereignty of Palestine then no need remains to the tortuous business of exchange of territories. Otherwise such exchange needs to be carried out by negotiations.

27. It is not our business to interfere and certainly not to decide for the Palestinians which government or leaders are best for them. The Palestinian President, Abu Mazen, is not in control. Hamas has to be brought directly into any negotiation for an enduring settlement. If either or both do not accept these or similar proposals, Israel should unilaterally implement them on its side of the new borders the way Prime Minister Sharon implemented the evacuation of Gaza, UNILATERALLY.

Tuesday, 4 March 2014

National Service and Army Service


1. The Ultra Religious mass demonstration in Jerusalem should be a huge wake-up call to all of us. As the demonstrators were mainly male it is not unreasonable to assume that they represent at least one million and probably even more. If we add to this the number of the Arabs in  Israel we find that over 40 per cent of the citizens of Israel don't want to serve in the Army. And so while the army was the unifying force and a leveller of the diverse segments of our population make-up in the 50s and 60s, it has now become a divisive factor added together with other factors to weaken Israel from within.

2. Gradually the army moved from being a unifying factor to become over the years a divisive social factor. It churned out generals and officers that created military oligarchies  within the civil, economic and the political  life of the country to the exclusion not only of the Haredi religious community but also to some immigrant communities and certainly to all the Arab minorities.  This highlights sharply how the people in Israel are divided and it calls for immediate and long term measures to rectify this serious situation.

3. This is not a healthy state of affairs and therefore it has become imperative to find a long term consensual solution. One such simple solution is to separate National Service from Military Service by creating a modern professional smaller army fit for the emerging warfare of the 21st century. How?

4. All adult citizens irrespective of religion, nationality or ethnicity are to serve by law a period of 2/3 years Compulsory National Service from age 18. This Service concentrates on Home Defence, emergency duties and social services and extends to farming and infrastructural projects. Nachal was a great and proud division of the IDF. We would do well by avoiding imported foreign labour into Israel stalking for ourselves future problems.

5. Military Service will be based on army voluntary recruits. These recruits have to be passed by the army as to their suitability for military service, especially for combat specialised units for the defence of the country from outside threats.

6. Salaries of members of both services are set in favour of the military recruits to incentify them. Moreover Military Service exempts its members automatically from National Service once they served equal term in the Army to that set for the National Service. 

Aharon Nathan, 4th March 2014

Thursday, 13 February 2014

Kerry's Framework for settling the Arab / Israeli conflict.


1. It was reported way back in July 2013 in the Sunday Times (and quoted in the Jerusalem Post) that “The Palestinian leader, Abu Mazen, said to President  Peres that "we should complete the peace process that we initiated together many years ago," adding, "There is hope; we will continue to build the future and I hope we will reach a good end."  Citing unnamed Israeli and Palestinian sources, the Times reported that Peres met Abbas in Amman for secret talks in which he convinced the PA President to accept that "West Bank settlers and Jewish residents of East Jerusalem could remain in their settlements but be subject to the Palestinian state." According to the sources, Peres pressured the Palestinian leader to accept this condition "as the minimum that he needed to convince Netanyahu to give his blessing to the talks." We need now to pray to God to keep these two old men alive to avoid another decade of mutual bloody conflict causing disintegration from within of the two States that have no other choice but to live next to each other in peace.

2. Now the cat is out of the bag, Kerry's patience is being rewarded. And as with his Iranian cry wolf Netanyahu's messianic vision of the future is yet again facing the rock of realities. And the winner is crafty Abu Mazen who all his life was watching the Israelis and learning how to manipulate their tactics to his advantage playing one faction against the other within Israel's political establishment.  By now Netanyahu must have realized that it was not clever to talk about a Referendum. Once Netanyahu said he would submit any settlement to a referendum Abu Mazen rushed to offer a similar procedure for his people. He understood the implication for him of such an unexpected gift. Netanyahu  does not need a Referendum because he knows fully well that the majority of the country is behind him anyway in seeking peace and the survival of Israel and so is the Knesset. But Abu Mazen can now keep his options open and use this pretext as a powerful chip. It will be up to him to ask which Palestinians should vote and when and where: the West Bank, Gaza, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon or wherever there are Palestinian Refugees. And here therefore lies another problem of our own making handing it a gift to Abu Mazen!.

3. And then comes the question of the Jordan Valley. Here there are two issues, the security and the settlements created there. As part of any final status agreement the Jewish Settlers can continue living there as Israeli citizens living as residents in Palestine. The commercial enterprise created by them will continue to need Arab workers and can therefore contribute to a continued successful commercial cooperation in the future under Palestinian sovereignty. As for the security issue; in modern age warfare and weaponry is it really vital for Israel to hold on to it? Even some top Israeli security experts think not. Any Israeli force stationed there will be vulnerable and become in the hands of extremists provocative in the future. Meantime it can only serve to protect Jordan from a future Palestine instead of facilitating letting the two merge into one State. At the time of the disengagement in Gaza we protected Egypt by insisting on the Philadelphi line separating them and Gaza to Mubarak's delight. We are repeating the same mistake now, this time protecting Jordan. No wonder King Abdullah rushed to register his interest meeting Netanyahu to give him support on this issue. Abu Mazen of course will oppose any Israeli presence or sovereignty on the Valley and insist on stationing an international military presence for the time being. And Kerry might offer an American proxy from Europe. But for how long? By default it will be Abu Mazen's successors who will decide, not Israel. There are many precedents for that.

4. And then the question of recognizing Israel as a Jewish Democratic state. For the life of me I don't understand why do we need this recognition. It is up to any sovereign state  to define and redefine itself democratically and by consensus of its citizens.  In the case of Israel it was decided way back by the UN in 1947. But now Israel says that   once Abu Mazen recognizes Israel Jewish status that will be the end of the Palestinian Refugees' claims. This is another gift, a bargaining chip to Abu Mazen. So what will Abu Mazen do now? I bet he will continue to resist such recognition using his resistance to gain concessions. At the end he will agree and sign. But what is the value of his signature when Hamas does not follow and even if it does declare its recognition, another group of Palestinian Refugees somewhere could in time raise the same question and demand the return of the refugees to their original villages and towns.  Are we not playing with useless semantics? Irridenta claims are open ended which only close neighbouring cooperation can put stop to it.

5. Meantime as with Iran Netanyahu is again misreading American evolving policy changes in general and in the Middle East in particular. Secretary of State Kerry is implementing those changes. However as one of the most consistent friend of Israel for many years he decided to give time for Netanyahu to sort out his problems with his Party and Coalition and his electoral weakness reflected in the results of the last Elections. That is why he came up with the idea of extending the negotiations to the end of the year but within an agreed Framework. But Netanyahu is a political tactician. He is not the leader that Ben Gurion, Rabin and Begin were. Unfortunately for Israel his moral authority is rooted in vague historical past rather than the future survival of Israel. Realities dictate and he lacks the authority or the steel in him to confront it and convey its grave consequences to our people.   

6. The American President in his second term is dubbed "lame duck" That might be true in home policy although Obama in his recent Address to Congress came out fighting even on that front. But one thing is sure, he can be even more defiant on foreign policy. Having extricated America out of Iraq and Afghanistan he set his vision on resolving the two intractable pending issues, those of Iran and the Arab-Israel conflict to keep American central dominance in the Middle East while turning his attention to the Pacific.  Kerry is carrying out diligently and tenaciously the resolution of these issues. He is not going to give up.  It was easier in Iran which found for itself a strong  leader, Rouhani. Unfortunately in our arena we have two weak leaders.  Of the two the weaker is Abu Mazen,  but not necessarily the less effective. He knows he is weak with nothing to fight with. So he must have learnt from De Gaulle sitting isolated in his embassy in London during War II pretending to face Churchill as equal.

7. I wonder if it occurred to the Extreme-Right Israeli politicians claiming in unison that they have no Palestinian partner, that in fact the Palestinians were not party to the 6-Day War, they were the victims.  Gaza was part of Egypt and the West Bank part of Jordan. Israel negotiated the peace that ended that war both with Egypt and Jordan gratuitously choosing to retain and therefore to accept  responsibility for both these regions. After the two peace treaties Egypt and Jordan washed their hands of the whole conflict. The Palestinians were left to themselves and became Israel's problem and responsibility to the delight and relief both of Egypt and Jordan.

8. Abu Mazen must be amused to hear Israeli politicians accusing him day in day out of this and that when in fact he is their captive with nothing to fight with except words. And luckily for him he is not a good speaker so he does not need even to use rhetoric against Netanyahu and lose. He waits, letting us do all the running and all the mistakes. But Kerry needs to find a solution to help the American-Israeli de facto military alliance while avoiding a failure that would have repercussions on American new policy in the Middle East and its world wide leadership. So he came with the idea of a Framework that will enable the negotiations to continue till the end of the year. But this is going to be an American Framework no doubt approved by the Quartet.  The biggest problem that will face Israel then will be if Abu Mazen out of desperation applies to the Security Council asking it to ratify Kerry's framework accepting all the conditions on his side. What has he got to lose? To him it would be a win-win situation, the end of the occupation and the legitimization of the State of Palestine. How could America veto his application? And even if it needs under pressure to abstain, the resolution will of course be still carried. Abu Mazen knows that through this gate Palestine can be established and he can speak to Netanyahu with the status of equal, not as the leader of captives but as head of a state recognized by all the world.  

9. Kissinger was right all that long time ago when he said that Israel had no foreign policy only internal policy. He repeated this again recently in Munich. Is it not time for us to wake up, stop using and abusing our past  and face the realities of our  present.  The new generations in Israel and in the world at large can't buy our convoluted prehistoric narratives any more pitching our fundamentalism against Arab fundamentalism. Now that Avigdor Lieberman no less  is echoing the late Rabbi Ovadia Yoseph that the safe existence of Jews in Israel should come before possessing this or that piece of land and settlement is it not time for all of us to get real.  May be the time has come for Israel's political establishment to face realities and internalize the truth that it cannot procrastinate any longer. The Palestinian leadership still possesses the trump card, the joker.  It could declare that the negotiations are leading nowhere and it is too late anyway to set up a  viable State so they have no choice but to accept  living in greater Israel, from the sea to the river demanding full citizenship. What would Israel's response be then?

Aharon Nathan, 13th February 2014