Sunday, 20 July 2014

Gaza Conflict - Background and solutions to Israel-Arab Conflict


Note : With the war raging in Gaza today friends ask me what is the background and what are the solution for this ever continuing conflict. The following is my view which I held for many years and believe it holds true today as it did for all those years. It appeared as  chapter 14 of my book,  Israel : State or Ghetto

Israel Arab Conflict (Address to the Academy for Political Development in Zagreb on 15 April 2009)      

Seeking solutions for the Israel-Arab Conflict      

Historical Background:
1. The Israel/Palestine conflict we witness today started as an Arab/Jewish confrontation at the beginning of the 20th century, with the rise of nationalism. The Jews were being persecuted in Eastern Europe but found no refuge in the West. They needed a national home and the only place they could claim any historical connection with was the Holy Land, the ancient home of the wandering Jew. Meanwhile, the Arabs were trying to free themselves, first from the yoke of their Muslim brothers, the Ottoman Turks, and then from the colonialist powers. Nationalism was the order of the age everywhere.

2. At the time, there were also the Middle Eastern Jewish Communities who lived, co-existing with other peoples, in Arab countries, sometimes tolerated but often not. As nationalism bubbled up everywhere they attempted to join and identify themselves with their Arab majorities – but they were never accepted. Their story is often overshadowed by the myriads of books written about Europe’s Jews and the establishment of Israel. Yet today, these descendants of Jews from Arab countries make up half of Israel’s population. Their claim to the right to live in peace in Israel is stronger than that of the European Jews, and even more so than that of the Palestinians. Unlike the Palestinians, with the whole of the huge Arab world open to them, Middle Eastern Jews have nowhere else to go but to live in tiny Israel. Think about it in another way. Let us for argument’s sake accept the Arab contention that Palestine, together with Israel, are all part of the Arab Land. It follows therefore that what in fact actually happened was that Eastern Jews have moved from one corner to another within the same Land. They are not invaders, not settlers. They are natives, and their ancestors were natives before the Arab conquest swept the Middle East in the seventh century. They are not the Crusaders that the Arabs today like to call Jews of European origin. To fully understand the present ME conflict it is important to learn about this aspect of it to see that there is not one set of ME refugees but two. And no better way to introduce this aspect of the conflict than to tell my own personal story. I was both witness and victim of the cruel process that made me a refugee in my own land.

3. I was born in Iraq, and was immersed in its culture and shared in its national aspirations. I was an Iraqi Jew growing up together with Iraqi Muslims. But my personal effort to integrate into the social and political fabric of the country, and God knows I did try, was always met with a rebuff by them. To them I was an alien. And by the time Israel was born in 1948, this rebuff became literally persecution. When all the doors were closed in my face, together with so many other Jews of my generation who were denied exit visas, we had to find a way to escape; literally to flee the country by crossing the border on foot. In my case that was via Iran, whose people I will always be indebted to for my safe passage at my desperate time of need.

4. There was no other country but Israel which would give refuge to me and to some 150 000 Jews who followed in 1950/52. These people could trace their ancestry back through 2500 years of continuous life in Iraq – long before the Arab Conquest. I arrived at the absorption centre in Israel in 1949. I found there a mixture of people: all dejected, all helpless. My fellow refugees from Arab countries were desperately trying to rebuild their lives out of nothing in a land of nothing. But it was the sight of the remnants of the Holocaust camps that broke my heart and my spirit. I saw frightened shadows of human beings, dazed, confused and broken, trying to regain their existence as humans. But worst of all, instead of natural hatred, rage and bitterness I found many of them trying to remove the concentration camp numbers on their arms because they felt guilty for being alive and ashamed of not having put up a fight before allowing themselves to be led as sheep to the Gas chambers. It is the combined images of the ethnically cleansed Arab Jews who lost their countries, and the Holocaust remnants of European Jews who lost their dignity, that are engraved in my being and in the mind of every Jew who says: “never again” That is why Israelis feel the need to keep their military power and even their nuclear shield –not because they are on a Samson-like suicidal mission. It is because they are determined to live with the pride and dignity denied to them in other countries throughout the ages. They are determined now that if they must die, they want to die fighting. For the Arabs, if they want to coexist with Israel, they should first remember this.

5. These fears, as reflected in my own personal story, must also be understood against wider Jewish history. Two thousand years of persecution, execution and forced conversion to Christianity and Islam, culminated in Hitler’s Final Solution, a solution which wiped out almost half the world’s Jewish population on the watch of the civilised world.

6. Today, it is worrying Israelis and Jews alike that what happened in Germany under the Nazis in the early 1930s is being re-enacted in a startlingly similar way in Europe. Every aspect of life in Israel, its people, its institutions, its places of learning, even its acclaimed courts of justice, are being demonized. Recently, this demonizing has been organized and reinforced by concerted bans and boycotts here in Europe in protest they say against the occupation of Palestinian lands, which in fact the majority of the people of Israel would be happy to hand back. All this sends shivers down the spines of Jews everywhere, reminding them of the anti-Semitic demonizing propaganda of the 1930s in Germany, which was the precursor of, and prepared the ground for the Holocaust. As Condoleezza Rice stated recently: Anti-Semitism is not just a historical fact but a current event.

7. The Arab World has played and continues to play its active part, too, in the Jewish tragedy. During World War 2 they made Jewish life in their midst a living hell. By the early 1950’s, when the safe haven of Israel opened, some 900,000 Jews were ethnically cleansed to Israel from Arab countries leaving most Arab countries what the Nazis called Judenrein, lands without Jews. Therefore what the Nazis failed to do the Arab countries accomplished and perpetuated. And the world accepts that as normal.

8. In contrast, today, 20 per cent of Israeli citizens are Arabs who enjoy full rights. They sit in parliament and can find their way, as indeed they have done, to sit in the various national institutions – even in the cabinet and in the Supreme Court. Nobody denies their right to be where they are, having lived in Israel even before the creation of Israel. But in Iraq, there is not one single Jew now living there.

9. Iraqi Jews were part of the tide of 900,000 Jewish refugees from Arab countries. Their plight and fate are forgotten because Israel did not leave them in camps to rot and did not ask the UN to set up agencies to perpetuate their misery and status as refugees. With help from Jews worldwide, these Jewish refugees with their bare hands gave themselves dignity, security and a future in stark contrast to the way rich, very rich, Arabs treated the then 700,000 Palestinian Refugees and disgracefully continue to treat their descendents since. Consequently, today only the Palestinian Refugees are remembered.

10. This, however, is not to gloss over the events of the 1948 War when the Arab Armies attacked the Jews in Palestine. Here no excuse or justification should wipe out or absolve either side of the wrongdoings, whether these were committed by State armies or by individual political leaders and local commanders. We need to deal not only with the memories but also with the outcome of that war. Irrespective of which side was to blame, the Arab countries which attacked, or the nascent State of Israel which needed to defend itself. It is the outcome that matters. Unless a just practical solution is found for the Palestinian refugees in the same way the Jews dealt with their own Jewish refugees, the Middle East will have no peace. But this will not happen until – in the words of Prince Hassan of Jordan – both sides begin to internalise the disaster and the suffering that befell each of them as a result of that war.

11. The Arabs, and recently even the historians of the conflict, name what happened to the Palestinians in the 1948 War “The Naqba”: in Arabic, the Disaster. But they conveniently ignore the Arab Jews’ corresponding Naqba. The reason for this is that while the Palestinian Naqba was a consequence of a war, the Arab Jews’ Naqba had much deeper historical roots. It was the culmination of the Judenrein process which threw the Arab Jews out of Arab countries, a process that is still reflected right now in Arab attitudes and prevents any compromise or solution of the Arab/Israeli conflict that has been festering since the creation of Israel.

The Islamist Version of Judenrein:
12. Judenrein is land pure and clean of Jews. This is a dream that Hitler designed for Europe, but the Arabs fulfilled it in their countries. This is the Arab side of the Holocaust, the real tragic “NAQBAH” of the Jews who lived for centuries in Arab countries. Today every nation in Europe tries to apologise for this policy. Not so the Arabs. They are proud of their achievement, which they declare day and night as a matter of religious piety.

13. Unfortunately for the Arabs, as was so unfortunate for the fanatical Germans this is not helping the Arabs themselves. In fact it is at the heart of their problems, pulling them back to the dark ages. Islamic learning and tolerance brought the Enlightenment into Christian Europe, but recently it seems – sadly – to be receding from their own nations.

14. The solution to the Arab and especially the Palestinian plight in their relationship with Israel could have been resolved long time ago, if only their leaders had grasped the immorality of the concept of Judenrein, and even more so if the West stopped accepting it as the norm in Arab countries. This acquiescence fostered its encouragement, with disastrous effects for the Arabs themselves.

15. If, as recently as at the time of the evacuation of Gaza by Prime Minister Sharon, the Palestinians had stood up and said: we claim back Gaza as land belonging to the State of Palestine, restoring the status quo ante before the 6-day War, but we have no problem with the Jewish settlements there staying as part of Palestinian Gaza, with Israelis living the way they live today in Germany, England and the USA…. If the Palestinians had done this, today Gaza would have been the new Hong Kong of the Middle East, with Israel as its hinterland and market and source of finance. Unfortunately, they missed this chance, because the Judenrein that shaped their attitude towards Jews got the better of them. It continues to be the obstacle in the way of practical and mutually beneficial solutions.

16. Such a chance to act sensibly is still open and could prove to be the way forward today for the Palestinians with regard to the future State of Palestine. The ball is also in the court of the Syrians to start a process which will bring real peace and prosperity to the region. Bashar Al-Assad, the Syrian leader, who clamours for the Golan, should take the initiative and suggest that the Jews in the Golan Heights could stay – after the withdrawal of Israel – as citizens of Syria or as Israelis-in-residence in a Syrian Golan – subject, just like other citizens in Syria, to Syrian law. This is exactly the same way that foreigners live in England, France or Germany today. It is then that Israeli resistance to withdrawal on security grounds will melt away, and a great and prosperous Golan can offer itself to millions of tourists from all over the world, who will enjoy the fusion of Arab and Jewish culture reminiscent of the glorious days of Cordoba and Toledo.

The Way Forward:
17. Unfortunately the Arab countries surrounding Israel are facing acute internal problems of social strife, political bankruptcy and overwhelming population explosion. The Palestinians have been left to themselves, and they are revelling in their infighting and delusions, making it impossible to reach any accommodation with Israel. They have become a plaything in the hands of Arab countries who are fighting each other for supremacy; they are also a proxy in the Islamic tug-of-war between the Shiaa of Iran and the Sunni of Saudi Arabia and Bin Laden. New Nassers and new Arafats are popping up everywhere without the Arabs asking themselves what good their old heroes did for them and what purpose the new ones serve. With this hopeless situation prevailing, it was right and practical for Israel to build the controversial Security Wall and it was wise to act unilaterally to give both sides time to find a solution for co-existence. Although they acted late, Sharon and Olmert proved to be foresighted both in building the Security Wall and in evacuating Gaza.

18. Amidst this confusion, Arabs can only accept co-existence once it dawns on them that Israel is there to stay, not because of its army, not because of its history, not because of the Holocaust, but because the 6 million Jews in Israel (more than half of whom are descendents anyway of ethnically cleansed Arab Jewish Refugees) have nowhere else to go. They have no choice but to stand up and fight even if it is a war of mutual destruction with their enemies. Only this realization will convince the Arabs to seek mutually acceptable solutions.

19. On our side, the Israeli side, our social fissures and political instabilities are creating hesitancy and lack of resolve which are sabotaging the implementation of our only available policy: i.e securing ourselves unilaterally and quickly within defendable borders. These new borders have to be defended militarily and, even more importantly, they have to be acceptable in due course internationally through negotiation. We cannot solve these problems without introducing real changes in our political structures. Social divisions are impeding the process of fusing together our Jewish communities and integrating our Arab minorities. These, together with the political instability of governments, stand in the way both of our negotiations with the Arabs and the implementation of our only available policy of securing ourselves unilaterally. The new electoral system I have proposed: TR -- Total Representation – is key to the urgent changes needed to overcome these difficulties. At its core is the direct accountability of Parliament to ordinary citizens, making it easy for a broadly representative parliament and a stable government to evolve, and empowering them to make brave decisions for peace.

Conclusions and Solutions:
20. Unlike Christian or Muslim countries, Israel cannot be treated in isolation from the Jewish people worldwide. After what happened in Europe and in the Arab countries, Jews everywhere believe that the defeat of Israel would mean annihilation. Israel is all the Jewish People’s refuge of last resort.

21. Lasting Peace is not a matter of goodwill. It lasts only if it is based on the absence of potential future conflicts on the ground. In the aftermath of the recent tragic and unnecessary Gaza War, we Israelis, have to ask ourselves fundamental questions. These questions need to be daring, deep and all-encompassing. There is no doubt that for one century now our Arab neighbours have not accepted us. In turn we, on our side ceased long ago to try to understand them. A mental curtain has descended between the Arabs and us, and that includes our own Arab citizens. In fact we seem to live parallel lives – so much so that we have become accustomed to a view of each other only through telescopic gun-barrels.

22. The only thing that will work is maximum defensible real, physical separation of the two states of Israel and Palestine on the ground. The recent wars of Lebanon and Gaza and all the ensuing killing and destruction make separation more urgent and necessary – indeed mandatory. Gaza is at the core of the problem. It needs to be developed economically along the lines of Singapore or Hong Kong; it has to become a viable entity supporting its population. Some of its refugees have to be given means and opportunities and encouraged to resettle in the West Bank and in Arab Countries, including the sparsely-populated, labour-hungry Gulf. Its border to Sinai and Egypt has to be opened for free trade and interaction with the world beyond. Otherwise Gaza will remain a pressure cooker waiting to explode.

23. But Gaza also needs to cease being a potential threat to Israel. A situation has to be avoided where it can become the western arm of a future Palestinian pincer that together with Hebron on the eastern border of southern Israel will fuel future rising tension, leading to a conflagration that can have only one result: either Israel or Palestine will have to be divided into two halves, thus stoking up more violence. The solution here will have to be for Gaza to become an independent state. Europe has many examples of such small states that sprang into being out of realpolitik necessity. Today, the Palestinian President Abu Mazen’s West Bank is already separated from Hamas’s Gaza. Why not keep them that way for the sake of peace both for Israelis and Palestinians? Thus, four states will arise out of the old Palestine: Israel, Jordan, Palestine and the republic of Gaza. The result will be the final end and the last nail in the coffin of the ill-conceived British Mandate. These four states can join together in an economic Common Market that will bring stability, peace and prosperity to all their inhabitants.

24. How would the Egyptians react to the establishment of a separate state in Gaza? I believe they will welcome this solution which in effect would solve their own problem which is even more thorny and complex than that of Israel. Terrorist Gaza as it is today is a threat to Egypt through illegal infiltration. Hamas members find internal allies and homes amongst the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. The border with Sinai is porous and out of control because both sides of it are united in their hatred of Israel. All this will change once it becomes the border between two Arab sovereign states controlled by passports and visas the same way that Egypt today protects its border with Libya and the Sudan. Egypt can facilitate the filtering of refugees to other Arab countries from the State of Gaza where the latter’s government becomes responsible for taking back undesirable elements. The inhabitants of the State of Gaza will be more interested in their livelihood and sooner or later will themselves throw out Hamas. In the new situation Israel can legitimately in the eyes of the world defend vigorously and effectively its border against a hostile state which will be responsible for its actions. Israel and Egypt will then have identical common interest instead of the present ambivalent attitude towards the Gazans and towards each other.

25. Jerusalem has to be divided into: Jerusalem Capital of Israel; and Al-Quds Capital of Palestine - Twin Cities with a clear SEPARATION between the two. Without this no peace will survive. Arab inhabitants in Jerusalem (those who were annexed after the-6 Day War) should revert to Palestine citizenship but can live as residents in Jerusalem if their residence falls within Israeli Jerusalem. Likewise, Jews who choose to stay in Al-Quds can retain their Israeli citizenship but continue to live as residents in Palestine subject to its laws after a period of protection by Israel.

26. Similar status should apply (after a period of protection by the Israeli army) to all Israelis who choose to stay in the new Palestine. This includes the Jewish enclave in Hebron. The same arrangement should be accorded to the cluster of Jewish settlements which fall on the borders of Palestine, in accordance with the spirit of the exchange of letters between President Bush and Prime Minister Sharon of 14th April 2004. If the enclave of this cluster of settlements on the western border of new Palestine is allowed to remain within the sovereignty of Palestine then no need remains to the tortuous business of exchange of territories. Otherwise such exchange needs to be carried out by negotiations.

27. It is not our business to interfere and certainly not to decide for the Palestinians which government or leaders are best for them. The Palestinian President, Abu Mazen, is not in control. Hamas has to be brought directly into any negotiation for an enduring settlement. If either or both do not accept these or similar proposals, Israel should unilaterally implement them on its side of the new borders the way Prime Minister Sharon implemented the evacuation of Gaza, UNILATERALLY.

Tuesday, 4 March 2014

National Service and Army Service


1. The Ultra Religious mass demonstration in Jerusalem should be a huge wake-up call to all of us. As the demonstrators were mainly male it is not unreasonable to assume that they represent at least one million and probably even more. If we add to this the number of the Arabs in  Israel we find that over 40 per cent of the citizens of Israel don't want to serve in the Army. And so while the army was the unifying force and a leveller of the diverse segments of our population make-up in the 50s and 60s, it has now become a divisive factor added together with other factors to weaken Israel from within.

2. Gradually the army moved from being a unifying factor to become over the years a divisive social factor. It churned out generals and officers that created military oligarchies  within the civil, economic and the political  life of the country to the exclusion not only of the Haredi religious community but also to some immigrant communities and certainly to all the Arab minorities.  This highlights sharply how the people in Israel are divided and it calls for immediate and long term measures to rectify this serious situation.

3. This is not a healthy state of affairs and therefore it has become imperative to find a long term consensual solution. One such simple solution is to separate National Service from Military Service by creating a modern professional smaller army fit for the emerging warfare of the 21st century. How?

4. All adult citizens irrespective of religion, nationality or ethnicity are to serve by law a period of 2/3 years Compulsory National Service from age 18. This Service concentrates on Home Defence, emergency duties and social services and extends to farming and infrastructural projects. Nachal was a great and proud division of the IDF. We would do well by avoiding imported foreign labour into Israel stalking for ourselves future problems.

5. Military Service will be based on army voluntary recruits. These recruits have to be passed by the army as to their suitability for military service, especially for combat specialised units for the defence of the country from outside threats.

6. Salaries of members of both services are set in favour of the military recruits to incentify them. Moreover Military Service exempts its members automatically from National Service once they served equal term in the Army to that set for the National Service. 

Aharon Nathan, 4th March 2014

Thursday, 13 February 2014

Kerry's Framework for settling the Arab / Israeli conflict.


1. It was reported way back in July 2013 in the Sunday Times (and quoted in the Jerusalem Post) that “The Palestinian leader, Abu Mazen, said to President  Peres that "we should complete the peace process that we initiated together many years ago," adding, "There is hope; we will continue to build the future and I hope we will reach a good end."  Citing unnamed Israeli and Palestinian sources, the Times reported that Peres met Abbas in Amman for secret talks in which he convinced the PA President to accept that "West Bank settlers and Jewish residents of East Jerusalem could remain in their settlements but be subject to the Palestinian state." According to the sources, Peres pressured the Palestinian leader to accept this condition "as the minimum that he needed to convince Netanyahu to give his blessing to the talks." We need now to pray to God to keep these two old men alive to avoid another decade of mutual bloody conflict causing disintegration from within of the two States that have no other choice but to live next to each other in peace.

2. Now the cat is out of the bag, Kerry's patience is being rewarded. And as with his Iranian cry wolf Netanyahu's messianic vision of the future is yet again facing the rock of realities. And the winner is crafty Abu Mazen who all his life was watching the Israelis and learning how to manipulate their tactics to his advantage playing one faction against the other within Israel's political establishment.  By now Netanyahu must have realized that it was not clever to talk about a Referendum. Once Netanyahu said he would submit any settlement to a referendum Abu Mazen rushed to offer a similar procedure for his people. He understood the implication for him of such an unexpected gift. Netanyahu  does not need a Referendum because he knows fully well that the majority of the country is behind him anyway in seeking peace and the survival of Israel and so is the Knesset. But Abu Mazen can now keep his options open and use this pretext as a powerful chip. It will be up to him to ask which Palestinians should vote and when and where: the West Bank, Gaza, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon or wherever there are Palestinian Refugees. And here therefore lies another problem of our own making handing it a gift to Abu Mazen!.

3. And then comes the question of the Jordan Valley. Here there are two issues, the security and the settlements created there. As part of any final status agreement the Jewish Settlers can continue living there as Israeli citizens living as residents in Palestine. The commercial enterprise created by them will continue to need Arab workers and can therefore contribute to a continued successful commercial cooperation in the future under Palestinian sovereignty. As for the security issue; in modern age warfare and weaponry is it really vital for Israel to hold on to it? Even some top Israeli security experts think not. Any Israeli force stationed there will be vulnerable and become in the hands of extremists provocative in the future. Meantime it can only serve to protect Jordan from a future Palestine instead of facilitating letting the two merge into one State. At the time of the disengagement in Gaza we protected Egypt by insisting on the Philadelphi line separating them and Gaza to Mubarak's delight. We are repeating the same mistake now, this time protecting Jordan. No wonder King Abdullah rushed to register his interest meeting Netanyahu to give him support on this issue. Abu Mazen of course will oppose any Israeli presence or sovereignty on the Valley and insist on stationing an international military presence for the time being. And Kerry might offer an American proxy from Europe. But for how long? By default it will be Abu Mazen's successors who will decide, not Israel. There are many precedents for that.

4. And then the question of recognizing Israel as a Jewish Democratic state. For the life of me I don't understand why do we need this recognition. It is up to any sovereign state  to define and redefine itself democratically and by consensus of its citizens.  In the case of Israel it was decided way back by the UN in 1947. But now Israel says that   once Abu Mazen recognizes Israel Jewish status that will be the end of the Palestinian Refugees' claims. This is another gift, a bargaining chip to Abu Mazen. So what will Abu Mazen do now? I bet he will continue to resist such recognition using his resistance to gain concessions. At the end he will agree and sign. But what is the value of his signature when Hamas does not follow and even if it does declare its recognition, another group of Palestinian Refugees somewhere could in time raise the same question and demand the return of the refugees to their original villages and towns.  Are we not playing with useless semantics? Irridenta claims are open ended which only close neighbouring cooperation can put stop to it.

5. Meantime as with Iran Netanyahu is again misreading American evolving policy changes in general and in the Middle East in particular. Secretary of State Kerry is implementing those changes. However as one of the most consistent friend of Israel for many years he decided to give time for Netanyahu to sort out his problems with his Party and Coalition and his electoral weakness reflected in the results of the last Elections. That is why he came up with the idea of extending the negotiations to the end of the year but within an agreed Framework. But Netanyahu is a political tactician. He is not the leader that Ben Gurion, Rabin and Begin were. Unfortunately for Israel his moral authority is rooted in vague historical past rather than the future survival of Israel. Realities dictate and he lacks the authority or the steel in him to confront it and convey its grave consequences to our people.   

6. The American President in his second term is dubbed "lame duck" That might be true in home policy although Obama in his recent Address to Congress came out fighting even on that front. But one thing is sure, he can be even more defiant on foreign policy. Having extricated America out of Iraq and Afghanistan he set his vision on resolving the two intractable pending issues, those of Iran and the Arab-Israel conflict to keep American central dominance in the Middle East while turning his attention to the Pacific.  Kerry is carrying out diligently and tenaciously the resolution of these issues. He is not going to give up.  It was easier in Iran which found for itself a strong  leader, Rouhani. Unfortunately in our arena we have two weak leaders.  Of the two the weaker is Abu Mazen,  but not necessarily the less effective. He knows he is weak with nothing to fight with. So he must have learnt from De Gaulle sitting isolated in his embassy in London during War II pretending to face Churchill as equal.

7. I wonder if it occurred to the Extreme-Right Israeli politicians claiming in unison that they have no Palestinian partner, that in fact the Palestinians were not party to the 6-Day War, they were the victims.  Gaza was part of Egypt and the West Bank part of Jordan. Israel negotiated the peace that ended that war both with Egypt and Jordan gratuitously choosing to retain and therefore to accept  responsibility for both these regions. After the two peace treaties Egypt and Jordan washed their hands of the whole conflict. The Palestinians were left to themselves and became Israel's problem and responsibility to the delight and relief both of Egypt and Jordan.

8. Abu Mazen must be amused to hear Israeli politicians accusing him day in day out of this and that when in fact he is their captive with nothing to fight with except words. And luckily for him he is not a good speaker so he does not need even to use rhetoric against Netanyahu and lose. He waits, letting us do all the running and all the mistakes. But Kerry needs to find a solution to help the American-Israeli de facto military alliance while avoiding a failure that would have repercussions on American new policy in the Middle East and its world wide leadership. So he came with the idea of a Framework that will enable the negotiations to continue till the end of the year. But this is going to be an American Framework no doubt approved by the Quartet.  The biggest problem that will face Israel then will be if Abu Mazen out of desperation applies to the Security Council asking it to ratify Kerry's framework accepting all the conditions on his side. What has he got to lose? To him it would be a win-win situation, the end of the occupation and the legitimization of the State of Palestine. How could America veto his application? And even if it needs under pressure to abstain, the resolution will of course be still carried. Abu Mazen knows that through this gate Palestine can be established and he can speak to Netanyahu with the status of equal, not as the leader of captives but as head of a state recognized by all the world.  

9. Kissinger was right all that long time ago when he said that Israel had no foreign policy only internal policy. He repeated this again recently in Munich. Is it not time for us to wake up, stop using and abusing our past  and face the realities of our  present.  The new generations in Israel and in the world at large can't buy our convoluted prehistoric narratives any more pitching our fundamentalism against Arab fundamentalism. Now that Avigdor Lieberman no less  is echoing the late Rabbi Ovadia Yoseph that the safe existence of Jews in Israel should come before possessing this or that piece of land and settlement is it not time for all of us to get real.  May be the time has come for Israel's political establishment to face realities and internalize the truth that it cannot procrastinate any longer. The Palestinian leadership still possesses the trump card, the joker.  It could declare that the negotiations are leading nowhere and it is too late anyway to set up a  viable State so they have no choice but to accept  living in greater Israel, from the sea to the river demanding full citizenship. What would Israel's response be then?

Aharon Nathan, 13th February 2014 

Friday, 3 January 2014

Lieberman - An Unexpected Peace Maker?

1. Netanyahu's rhetorical battle against Iran ended in a pyrrhic victory. Its long term consequences will be harmful to Israel. The hostility in the streets of Europe and the resentment of the economic interests of the West in the resumption of relations with Iran will cast a shadow on Israel's diminishing popularity both in Europe and the USA. The idea that we were fighting a proxy war for Saudi Arabia and the Gulf will not wash amongst  the Sunni Arab world as long as the Palestinian problem is not resolved. But its impact on our relations with the Americans will be felt. Netanyahu's misconceived tactics have misfired and succeeded paradoxically only to project Iran as the top regional power leaving Turkey and Israel behind.

2. And what about the other bone of contention between Netanyahu and Kerry? Kerry wants to concentrate on the West Bank. Netanyahu ask what about Gaza and Hamas. In this I believe Kerry is right. Once Abu Mazen is established as the President of the State of Palestine he will deal with Gaza and Hamas. And the quicker that happens the bigger chance Abu Mazen will have to assert his authority especially now that Egypt is weakening Hamas. It would be wise for Israel to leave that issue to the Palestinians themselves to solve their internal differences. For unless Abu Mazen is established soon as  the President of a viable Palestine on the West Bank the future leadership of the Palestinians will by default revert back to Hamas. We would then have resurrected them at a time when their popularity and influence are at an all time low. It will be us who will perpetuate the conflict with all the Palestinians and consequently with all the Arab world.

3.  Israel's other problem is internal. It is causing much harm to our democracy and politics. I refer to the way our three arms of the state are interacting. The Rule of the Law of the Knesset, the first arm of the State, the Sovereign, is now replaced by the Rule of the Law of the Supreme Court. Today it is the Judges of Jerusalem who  decide which law is good and binding and which is not thus legislating from the Bench. Contrary to the general perception in Israel this is not the case in the West certainly not in England. And for good measure the delays of investigations of the Police, the Prosecutor General and the overburdened Courts together are impacting indirectly on the  political arena where key players are removed for years awaiting trials and verdicts.  Justice today in Israel is Justice Denied because it is Justice Delayed. Examples of public figures shabbily treated  are too many to enumerate.

4. After some 15 years when his reputation was shredded Lieberman was acquitted. Can we hope that soon this will be followed by the final decision on Ehud Olmert?  Is there time left for him to join in leading us out of the morass that the settlers of the West Bank have plunged us into. Here we have the best Prime Minister neutralised, who could have taken part in the fateful decisions that have to be made now on the future existence of Israel.  And if he continues to be denied his central role will  Netanyahu instead wake up at last to catch the opportunity to do that himself?

5. Olmert in publicised  interviews in America and Israel explained frankly and openly the details of the peace plan  that he hammered out during his premiership with Abu Mazen. Olmert believes that it could have been implemented then, and can still be now, if only the counterpart leader in Israel has the courage to do that. Olmert has this courage but he is waiting on the sidelines for the conclusion of his trial. And we the people of Israel must look to the incumbent Premier Netanyahu to have that courage.

6. Would Netanyahu together with Tsipi Livni have the clout to catch this historic opportunity the way that Rabin-Peres did at Oslo?  I think that they might. As promised by Netanyahu that if a settlement is reached he will submit the plan to a Referendum. Will there be enough votes to succeed. I maintain yes - easily. With 20% Arabs in Israel who no doubt  will wholeheartedly and overwhelmingly vote for a settlement it will not be too difficult to recruit enough Jewish votes to bring the majority to 50% plus one with or without the support of the one million Israeli New Diaspora abroad.

7. But Netanyahu is leading a fractured coalition that lacks cohesion and resolve. He is hesitant and gets bouts of cold feet now and then which he treats with rhetoric. He understands the situation very well and knows ahead of public opinion that America with its prospect of self sufficiency in oil is not the same America that depended entirely on Saudi Arabians oil and therefore on us as the standby whipping boy. The Gulf States identification with the West today stems less from oil and more from their enormous financial interests. To them a pacified and contained Iran is better than Iran at loggerheads with the West. Most of them conveniently prefer Saudi Arabia to bear the brunt of the Shiaa/Sunna conflict. Saudia resents this new order but that should be no comfort to us

8, Here comes the long distance runner who takes the long view and plans his move long in advance: Avigdor Lieberman. Netanyahu is shrewd enough to see that he is snookered by long suffering Obama. By assigning the mediation to Kerry both Obama and Kerry are not going easily to give up the  prize of bringing the Israel/Palestinian negotiation to a successful conclusion. However unlike Netanyahu whose constituency is messianic and religious and his support tenuous, Lieberman's constituency is pragmatic and secular and his support is solid. He lives in the West Bank but is not dependant on its votes which he will always seek in Russian Natanya.

9. Therefore my belief is that having tried their utmost to negotiate the best deal via Tsipi Livni and directly with Kerry  Netanyahu backed by Lieberman will sign up with Abu Mazen, and that will be sooner than many expect. They both know that in the Knesset and in a referendum in the country their backing is assured.

Aharon Nathan, 3rd January 2014

Sunday, 24 November 2013

Isaac Herzog, Labour's new leader

On 24 Dec 2004, nine years ago when the two Labour/Avoda young stars Isaac Herzog and Ophir Pines-Paz came top of their Party’s primaries I despatched an immediate fax to them to which they responded politely but of course did nothing about it. If they followed my realistic assessment then one of them would have been our prime minister today heading a moderate government at peace with our neighbour the State of Palestine and ruling a country at peace with itself.


Aharon Nathan, 24th Nov 2013


Tuesday, 15 October 2013

Rouhani - First respect him and then suspect him.


1) We need to understand the new direction of the West in confronting their  international problems in the wake of the failures in Afghanistan and Iraq followed by the debacles in Libya and Syria. We, on our part have to face a different future not keep living in the past when our cards were more powerful in influencing the policies of the West in the Middle East. Then our interests were almost identical with those of the Americans and we sang from the same hymn sheet. Times have changed and we need to adapt to the new situation.

2) Nothing can illustrate our lack of understanding better than the behaviour of our government in the United Nations. We are undermining our friends and losing their trust rather than bolstering their stand in the renewed cold war irrupting in Europe and the Pacific. To leave the UN Assembly when Rouhani delivered his address, was a mistake  of the first degree. Yaeer Lapid's public chiding of Netanyahu was mild. Dany Danon, another Minister, declaring  that he would ensure the failure of our negotiations with the Palestinians was appalling. Our Government looks like it lacks cohesion and clear direction which is harming our future standing in the region and confusing our supporters. We should stop self congratulatory rhetoric which is becoming too much of a recurrent theme.

3) We insulted the Iranian people instead of exploiting Rouhani’s new approach slanting it to serve our purpose. We denied him the chance to address us publically. Respect, Dignity and Face are very important in the East. Fight an oriental if it suits you but don’t insult him showing him disrespect. Diplomacy is a make-belief art and a game. We can play it to exploit  the cracks appearing in our enemies' change of tone and try to widen it.   We should have shown respect towards Rouhani. Sitting to listen carefully and respectfully  to him could have given us a better platform to appeal and address the Iranian People over his head. Instead we appeared to spoil the delicate game that Obama believed he was playing as much on our behalf as on the Americans'.
 
4) Rouhani was more crafty than Netanyahu. He appealed to the Jewish people over the head of Israel's Government. He was exploiting the very approach that should have been taken by Israel. The Yom Kippur War was primarily a political failure anchored in a mistaken military assessment of our enemies. Our military might is again breeding arrogance and blinding our people.  We need to grasp that things are changing in the West whose governments are under great pressure from their anti Israel public and that unfortunately includes even  Germany recently despite the unwavering support by Angela Merkel. Netanyahu should have learned the lesson when President Hollande complained at the time that his joint visit  to Toulouse' Synagogue  was exploited by Netanyahu for the latter's home election campaign. And let us not forget the off the recorded whisper between Obama and Sarcosi voicing their exasperation at Netanyahu's tactics.

6) President Obama might not be the weak president that some commentators in our media in Israel portray him to be. It is only that he realises that America is economically too weak to afford itself wars abroad following Afghanistan and Iraq. But he is still the elected President of the most powerful country in the world today. Netanyahu has to understand that.  The thrust of Obama's stated address to the United Nations is two prong. Settling the Israeli/Palestinian issue and resolving the Iranian nuclear impasse. These are the two places where world leaders' attention were directed to join him in finding solutions. As for the Syrian crisis  Obama realised that he has to treat it as a side issue rather than  tackle it head on and clash with the Russians.

7) After the debacles in Libya and Egypt  Obama began to understand the mosaic of the Middle East. Turkey and Iran have been going through social transformations for the last century. As a result their populations are divided between on the one hand the modernity of Atatuk in Turkey and Pahlavi in Iran and on the other hand the rising Islamist reactions of Erdogan and Khamenaei. Recently these reactions were accentuated by a new open confrontation between  Shiaa and Sunni Islam. The undercurrent rivalry of five centuries between the  Ottoman Sunni Empire with the Shiaa Persian Empire has revived and is now bubbling.  But  both countries today have comparatively stable regimes and they realise that they have to find mutual accommodation of coexistence vis-à-vis the West. They are non-Arab Muslim countries in our region and we cannot afford to lose both of them. Our conflict with our Arab neighbours is less significant to them against their internal problems and is expressed by them in lip service verbal echoing of the Arab stereotype  pronouncements. Lately the Americans are trying to find a balance between them But on our part we must take every opportunity to address the moderates amongst them directly rather than concentrate on attacking their  governments.  

8) No doubt that Israel needs to be and be seen to be strong. However what is needed is not just a  strong well prepared army. Strength is relative. Israel's strength needs to be its ability to protect its borders from outside dangers and to create peaceful co existence of its fractured society inside. Realities cannot be faced with semantics. A slogan of a Jewish Democratic State cannot ring true in an Israel with a substantial Arab presence today that would swell into a future majority were we to keep the West Bank within Israel's Borders. Solutions not wishful thinking are called for. On my part, I tried on the pages  of my book “Israel: State or Ghetto” (and in my Hebrew book: Hametsiut Machtiva) to encapsulate my analysis of the 3 Major Problems that have been facing us crying for resolution and offered realistic  solutions. 1) A clear defendable borders,  2) A practical electoral system to ensure the cohesion of our citizenry and 3) A rehabilitation of our tattered  image abroad.

9) And just before  the second Lebanon war of 2006 in my address to the Oxford Union (Chapter 6 )  I analysed factually the struggle of Shia and Sunna for power in the region to the extent that won me the final vote at that night’s debate, but more importantly it won me the admiration of Professor Ali Ansari a close associate of the Rafsanjani faction in Iran. He went out of his way to tell my wife and later confirmed by email to me that as he put it, he bowed to the quality of my analysis and the wisdom of my approach. It is worthwhile to read this address which demonstrates a model of how to present our case and even our thorny case for keeping our nuclear option and win without insulting our  enemies and all that while not conceding an inch.

10) Soon after the second Lebanon war I analysed in the same book (ch 7 Debacle in Lebanon)  the precariousness of our relationships in the region and beyond, while discerning the signs of a coming  renewed Cold War. Here we are sandwiched between Arab hostile states neglecting our relationship with the two non-Arab real powers in the region, the Sunni Turkey and the Shia Iran. We are a small Jewish enclave in a sea of Arabs. We need the two non-Arab countries to set them up as our allied dams against the turbulent Arab sea. The history of the last 500 years would help us to understand better the background of the Arab relationship with their non Arab Muslins in the region.

11) The swell of anti Israel sentiments in the streets of Europe fed by a powerfully orchestrated Palestinian public relation machine is quickly changing into anti Jewish and Anti Semitic. It will soon spill over to the wider public of the United States. I say wider in order not to compress the US public as we often do into New York and Washington. It is this fear that  should inform our first and most important policy to settle our borders with the Palestinians with the dual objective of  securing the future survival of Israel and changing  its image in the world. Once our borders are agreed and settled Israel then will become as it was meant to be, the de facto last refuge of the Jewish people rather than a Masada like militarized camp where voluntarily the entire Jewish population of the world kraal themselves together into a tiny strip of land surrounded by 400 million Arabs raring to repossess it.  Geography and Demography should guide our politics and wisdom should guide our negotiations with the Palestinians. At the heart of our stance during the negotiations should be that in a final settlement  Jews can live in Palestine in the way that Arabs now constitute 20 per cent of Israel living as equal citizens within its borders. 

12) And as if we have not enough what with our internal divisions and external dangers a new problem as  worrying is now beginning to surface. A fault line is developing  between the messianic convictions of the militant ultra nationalistic ideologies in Israel and the progressive  pragmatic views of a growing segments  of  the Diaspora. This is a  gratuitous future threat  to our very existence as a united Jewish People.  Letting this gap between Israel and the Diaspora widen will weaken and may lead to destroying a unity which we have maintained for a century. Herzl's Altneuland needs to meet midway the Golden Medinah.  

Aharon Nathan, 15 Oct 2013

Monday, 16 September 2013

A New Year Message to my Friends in Israel


First let us be less arrogant and stop thinking that anybody who thinks differently from us is stupid. Let us assume that Obama and some of the entourage from the ultra Right Tea Party and from the ultra Left Liberal Democrats have something brewing but undefined as yet towards isolationism that eventually will affect American policies in the Middle East. I remember in the fifties a book on the ME (by Spicer ?) saying that we did not know what the United States’ interests in the Middle East were, but that that they were  growing! The reverse appears to be happening today. Policies are not defined first and applied later. They get slowly applied by force of circumstances and are defined at a later stage
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With this in mind  let us proceed:-

America and Soviet Russia fought each other in an ebb and flow fashion from the two sides of the Iron Curtain. Roosevelt and Stalin met in Teheran during World War 2  to define their spheres of influence in that region by dividing Iran itself, between the Russian North and the American South. The background for all that is well known and over documented, culminating in the recent wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

All that was guided in the main by America and the West’s need for oil and therefore the fortunes of Aramco and IPC. However, the latest development of fracking and other measures are forecast to make America self-sufficient in energy by 2020.

America and Russia supported the creation of Israel, the first out of religious and humanitarian motives moved by the Holocaust and the Russians by long term calculations of sheer self-interest.   The Americans continued their support in a merely humanitarian way, helped by NY Jewish community. The Suez War alienated the American establishment but Israel's triumph in the Six Day War proved to be a great land mark signalling change of direction. By that time Soviet Russia had penetrated Syria, Egypt, and Ethiopia, threatening Saudi oil supplies and challenging American interests. It is then that America realised that victorious Israel could provide a counter balance to neutralise this acute threat. Slowly the 6th Fleet took residence in the Mediterranean, and Israel became for the Americans a sort of an American aircraft carrier on land.

The same Anwar Sadat (a super conspirator!) who together with General Masri met Rommel during the second world war, woke up to see that Russia could supply arms but not bread. Wily crafty Kissinger recognised all that and exploited it to the full, and the Israel Egyptian peace treaty ensued following the Yom Kippur War.

With Soviet Russia economically disintegrating, American hegemony became supreme both in Europe and the Middle East. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq were superfluous and only served Russia indirectly by weakening America economically at the time when Russia's fortunes were reviving. This rendered the United States impotent in a startling way. Even more so recently with its hesitant moves both in Libya and recently in Syria. The international wheel turned complete circle round.

Russia was emboldened and the new Tsar Putin saw that his growing interest in pushing America was bearing  fruit. The new situation has created a new mood in Teheran. The two world powers have to accept sharing their spheres of influence again. Conveniently America backing the Sunnis and the Russians, the Shiaa. And where is Israel in all this?

This drama is being enacted before our eyes, but we are so obsessed with the latest 24 hour news headlines that our evaluation and understanding of the finality of these events is still based on the past. We need to wake up to the new realities that will dictate the future impact on the American public and therefore policy towards Israel. We have to think now and take the long view well before facing new realities.

Israel needs to speed up the setting up of the Palestine State out of sheer self interest. The solutions are well known and documented At best is to revive the Bush/Sharon agreement. If not then to agree to a new situation where Jews live in Palestine the way that Arabs live in Israel. That will be beneficial to both sides and the world will acclaim such a move by Israel. Time is against us. The public in the West (may be not the Governments) resent Israel and will not be sorry if it is hurt.

I know and accept that Israel's military power today can prevail and defeat the combined armies of all the Arab countries and Turkey together. That is not the issue. The existential danger for us comes from the sheer number of the Arab millions surrounding us.  Leaving our borders undefined stalks vulnerability. The danger does not need to come from attacks or intifadas. What will we do if one million of them decide one morning to walk unarmed, children first followed by women and then by their men folk. Just literally walk towards and through the check points claiming what they believe is the repossession of their lands? How many of them are we prepared to kill? A devilish nightmare plan but not unthinkable.

In all this one thing remains a mystery. The most potent weapon in our hands vis a vis the world and the Arabs is the fact that as many Jewish refugees from Arab countries found refuge in Israel as the number of Arab refugees who left Israel. Arab lands are now Judenrein. Why are our leaders shy and intimidated from shouting these facts from the rooftops. Irrespective who pushed and who pulled before or after 1948 the facts of the present are staring us and the world in the eye. The realities on the ground today confirms the validity of our position and constitutes a powerful argument that the public of hostile or friendly countries would understand and accept far better than invoking King David Temple or King Solomon Palace or for that matter whether Abraham paid or did not pay for Sarah's Tomb in Hebron 3500 years ago! Let us cast aside messianic dreams and face re-al politics.   

Aharon Nathan
16 Sept 2013