The obstacle to a new Centrist Party
1.
The analysis of the results of the elections of 2010,
2015 and 2017 show a clear tendency of the voters to revert to a pure binary
choice: yes/no, either/or. This tendency is not new as it is inherent in our
system of government which combines the constituency system with a majoritarian
first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral procedure. It aims to create two political
parties alternating in government; and that was how it worked for the last few centuries. This back to basics, back to a binary
electoral choice, was reawakened and revitalised by the effect of the last two
Referenda where a straight yes or no was required to determine the results. So, while before it had become easier for a
third party like the Lib-Dems to grow, it once again became more difficult in
the new electoral climate where there is no space for a third party unless it
can replace one of the two incumbents. A
new Party will take ages before it can achieve anywhere near to what the
Lib-Dems achieved before it blew it up through arrogance and the euphoria of
joining the Coalition in 2010.
2.
When the two political parties: the Tories and the Whigs
dominated parliament in the 19th century, their MPs and Lords came
from similar backgrounds. Although generally Tories were rooted in land and
inheritance while the Whigs were merchants and professionals, their division was
based on interests and policies not on social classes. One could say they
merged into one Social Class. Their young attended the same private schools and
aspired to serve in the army, the clergy and the colonies. In Parliament,
although the two were divided in name and aim, there was no problem moving
between the two. Gladstone started as Tory then he moved to lead the Whigs.
Churchill started as Tory moved to the Whigs and returned to the Tories. They
were all connected to different parts of the country through their
constituencies. All that changed however with the advent of the Labour Party
representing the working classes. Social Classing surfaced as the prime
differentiation between parties and personal parliamentary representation gave
way to party delegation. The Party took away the freedom of the individual
member of parliament and transferred it to the party. The barriers between
parties became rigid. The concept of Disraeli’s one nation aspiration
disappeared from our political canvass. Ideologies replaced national interests,
delegation replaced representation and rigidity pushed aside flexible practicality.
This situation is alien to our national tradition of fairness and pragmatism
which characterised the genius of the people of this country.
3.
Therefore we must not be surprised at the recent polarisation
of political opinions between the extreme Left of Labour and extreme Right of
the Tories resulting in a lot of recent talk in the media about starting a new
Centrist Party. As explained it is not easy to start a new political party
which would take maybe two or three election cycles just to establish
credibility. Moreover, it will be very difficult to attract sitting MPs to move
their allegiances after years of loyalty and service. But above all in our
present political and electoral system based on the constituency determining
one victor there is no place for a third party. Under the Constituency FPTP
System a new Party has to replace one of the two main Parties to survive.
Otherwise it stays as a pressure group. In
the early 20th century Labour displaced the Whigs. Towards the end
of the Century the merger of the Labour Right with the Liberal Party breathed
life into it with a hope of replacing Labour. Tony Blair saved Labour by
reincarnating it into New Labour. That was made possible because it followed the
earlier weakening of the two wings of the original Lib-Dem Party with the Two
Davids (Steele and Owen) pulling in two directions that rendered it too weak to
challenge the one or the other main Parties. Its revival at the end joining the
Conservatives in Coalition blew its chance to become a viable main party. Charles
Kennedy, the only Lib-Dem MP who voted against joining the Coalition understood
that joining a main Party would lose its chance to replace either party. The
last blow came about when they fought a hopeless Referendum campaign to replace
FPTP with a faulty AV against the declared position of their Conservative
partners.
4.
Let us now consider also the anomaly of the recent
elections results, e.g in the 2015 Election: 1,157,613 Green votes gaining one
MP or 3,681,129 UKIP votes gaining one MP or even the Lib-Dems 2,415,888
gaining 8 MPs i.e. a total of 7,254,630 votes gaining just 10 MPs while
1,454,436 SNP gained 56 MPs! This is an affront
to common sense and an insult to our concept of democracy. So with the considerable vote losses of the
Lib-Dems, the Greens and almost the disappearance of UKIP there is little
possibility of creating a new Centrist Party to challenge the one or the other
of the incumbent parties under FPTP voting. But even if there is, pending that
possibility, there is an urgent need to at least create a Movement that will
give voice and hope to those 7-8 million fluid voters/dissenters of these three
parties plus a similar number of voters who gave up voting altogether amongst
the electorate in safe constituencies.
5.
However another question pops up: why should the
advocates of a new Centrist Party resort to the use of a sledge hammer when a
screw driver can do the trick. All what they (and may be others like-minded)
need to do is to canvass and create a national drive to tweak our electoral
system and modify it to make a limited room for parliamentary participation for
those dissenting floating voters left hanging in the air.
6.
Such a tweak has been available in the public domain
for the last 20 years and it needs to be dusted down and brought to the
attention of the media, the political leaderships and to all who care about our
democracy. This is the innovative and simple system of TR Total Representation which
gently modifies our present electoral procedure. TR is an Electoral System that
fuses our present Constituency FPTP with a small dose of PR Proportional
Representation. TR gives vent to the frustration and a temporary home in Parliament
for those who do not support either the Conservatives or Labour and enables
them to join together to build an alternative party with a view to potentially replacing
one or other of the two main parties.